-- 加拿大皇家银行资本市场策略师周二在一份报告中指出，阿联酋退出欧佩克的决定短期内不太可能扰乱石油市场，但这表明，在持续的中东冲突中，这个海湾产油国正寻求对其产量政策拥有更大的控制权，因此其战略调整也在进行更广泛的调整。 多年来，阿联酋一直致力于将投资转化为利润，扩大原油产能并推广其穆尔班基准原油价格，这一策略有时会加剧欧佩克内部的紧张关系。 加拿大皇家银行分析师表示，围绕产量基准的争议，包括2021年7月导致协议延迟近两周的僵局，凸显了阿联酋与其他成员国在产量配额问题上的摩擦。 分析师表示，阿联酋的退出反映了这些紧张局势的延续，因为该国一直寻求更高的产量目标。随后，阿联酋在2023年推动修改其基准原油价格，导致复杂的配额重新分配，一些非洲产油国的配额减少。 然而，尽管政策有所转变，但预计阿联酋在冲突平息后，其石油产量不会大幅超过2026年初的水平。 这个海湾国家目前的石油产能已接近饱和，战后重建的需求可能会抑制任何快速的供应增长。 阿联酋当局在一份声明中表示，将继续“以循序渐进的方式”向市场投放更多石油，以适应市场需求和当前形势。 RBC分析师表示，这表明在可预见的未来，全球石油系统的剩余产能仍将集中在沙特阿拉伯。 此举正值与伊朗的地区冲突的关键时刻，这场冲突加剧了人们对能源安全的担忧，尤其是在具有重要战略意义的霍尔木兹海峡附近。 阿联酋一直是海湾国家中最强烈反对伊朗继续控制该通道的国家之一，并列举了伊朗多次对其领土发动无人机和导弹袭击的事件。 阿联酋日益强硬的立场似乎更接近以色列，而非一些海湾邻国。 RBC分析师预计，一旦冲突结束，阿布扎比和以色列将在能源安全和关键基础设施领域加强合作，可能包括在红海等战略区域进行联合投资和扩大防务协议。 分析师表示，阿联酋退出欧佩克并不意味着欧佩克即将分裂。由于目前没有立即协调减产的需求，而且许多成员国正专注于战后重建产能，预计该组织在短期内将保持整体完整性。
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Capstone Copper Q1 Profit Jumps Nearly 12-Fold, Beats Estimates On Higher Copper Prices
Capstone Copper (CS.TO) after the close Wednesday reported a nearly 12-fold surge in first-quarter adjusted net income as higher copper prices boosted earnings, with results topping analysts' estimates.The company posted record adjusted net income attributable to shareholders , excluding most one-time items, of US$94.8 million, or US$0.12 per share, up from US$8.1 million, or US$0.01 per share, a year earlier. The result exceeded FactSet analysts' estimate of US$0.11 per share.Capstone said the increase was driven by stronger earnings from mining operations, supported by higher realized copper prices.Revenue for the three months ended March 31 rose to US$652.5 million from US$533.3 million in the prior-year period, beating FactSet analysts' estimate of US$647.5 million.The company also reported record adjusted EBITDA of US$329.1 million for Q1 2026, up from US$179.9 million a year earlier, primarily due to higher realized copper prices, which rose 36% to US$5.92 per pound, and supported by stronger gold and silver prices. This marked the sixth consecutive quarter of record adjusted EBITDA, the company said.In its 2026 production outlook, the company issued guidance of 200,000 to 230,000 tonnes of copper and C1 cash costs guidance of $2.45 to $2.75 per payable pound of copper remains unchanged. 2026 capital expenditure, capitalized stripping, and exploration expenditure guidance is also unchanged."We continue to monitor and manage the impacts stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. To date we have not experienced any inventory or operational impacts, however cost pressures, notably from higher diesel and sulphuric acid prices, represent a headwind," Capstone said.The company said its MV Optimized Project progressed according to plan during Q1 2026 and the capital cost estimate of US$176 million is unchanged. MV Optimized is a capital-efficient brownfield expansion project providing incremental copper and gold production of approximately 20,000 tonnes and 6,000 ounces of gold per annum, respectively."For the remainder of 2026, we are focused on operational execution and continuing to advance our high-return organic growth opportunities, including executing the Mantoverde Optimized Project, advancing Santo Domingo to a sanctioning decision, and progressing our exploration strategy centered around district-scale growth. Despite recent geopolitical volatility, copper prices remain strong and fundamentals support continued momentum, reinforcing our ability to deliver significant value through our peer-leading growth pipeline," chief executive Cashel Meagher said,Company's shares closed down $0.21 to $10.84 on Toronto Stock Exchange.
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