-- 加拿大皇家银行(RBC)表示,尽管美国关税规模空前,但主要经济体在2025年经受住了贸易冲击,只是暗流涌动,造成了显著的分配格局变化。 该银行指出,美国进口迅速调整,减少了对中国等高关税地区的依赖,但由于美国消费者、企业和政府持续支出,2025年美国进口总额仍保持增长。不涉及美国的全球贸易中,近90%的贸易额继续增长。 加拿大皇家银行指出,分配格局的影响较为集中。加拿大整体国内生产总值(GDP)表现好于预期,但某些特定行业——例如钢铁出口下降30%,汽车和铝业——以及安大略省和魁北克省等实际关税税率超过6%的地区,都受到了严重冲击。 该银行指出,加拿大高度一体化的跨境供应链是大多数美国海外贸易伙伴所面临的挑战。尽管近90%的加拿大出口商品仍免征关税,但到2025年,加拿大在美国进口市场的份额仍将下降。 加拿大皇家银行(RBC)指出,世界各国能够承受美国贸易冲击,而加拿大则难以做到这一点。这一年,全球对贸易政策不确定性的应对能力有所提升,美国在加拿大出口中所占份额有所下降。但即便如此,这一比例仍然高达71.6%,这意味着加拿大从根本上来说比大多数其他贸易伙伴更容易受到美国贸易冲击的影响。
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