-- 加拿大皇家银行(RBC)表示,3月份加拿大总体消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨2.4%,主要受中东冲突导致能源价格上涨的影响,但更广泛的潜在通胀压力显示出进一步缓解的迹象。 该行在周一公布CPI数据后指出,同比价格增长仍然受到税收变化的严重扭曲。去年4月,加拿大大部分地区取消了消费者碳税,这意味着能源价格同比涨幅低于预期;食品价格增速放缓主要是由于去年2月中旬结束的消费税/统一销售税(GST/HST)免税期,该免税期人为地压低了去年的餐饮价格。 相比之下,加拿大央行自身的核心通胀指标剔除了税收变化以及能源价格波动的影响,该指标仍然显示潜在通胀势头正在降温。 剔除住房等服务业的CPI(包括CPI-trim、CPI-median等)按三个月滚动平均值计算的年化涨幅为1.7%。加拿大央行指出,这标志着潜在通胀压力持续逐步缓解,且2026年迄今为止,环比价格涨幅高于往常的产品占比有所下降。 尽管部分项目,尤其是食品杂货价格和租金,仍远高于去年同期水平(约4%),但3月份的报告强化了加拿大皇家银行的观点,即近期油价上涨可能在短期内推高整体通胀,但不太可能重新引发更广泛的通胀压力。 加拿大央行将密切关注通胀预期,但核心价格增长放缓也让央行有更大的灵活性,可以同时关注当前依然疲软、失业率居高不下的经济环境。
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