-- 加拿大皇家银行（RBC）在上周五发布的《前瞻性指引》报告中指出，本周的焦点将集中在加拿大央行周三的利率决议上，以及周四公布的2月份国内生产总值（GDP）数据上。RBC预计，加拿大央行将连续第四次会议维持利率不变，但同时表示，政策制定者将密切关注能源价格上涨对通胀的影响。报告还指出，4月份总体消费者价格指数（CPI）增速可能自2023年12月以来首次超过1%至3%的通胀目标区间。 但RBC指出，加拿大央行的利率政策无法影响全球油价，而且利率对经济的影响存在滞后性，这意味着央行需要根据未来的通胀预期而非当前的通胀水平来制定货币政策。 加拿大皇家银行(RBC)预计，只要通胀预期和除能源价格上涨之外的更广泛通胀压力保持可控，加拿大央行(BoC)将对因供应驱动型燃料成本飙升而造成的短期内购房能力挑战保持谨慎态度。 RBC指出，上周加拿大央行发布的《商业展望调查》(BOC)显示，通胀预期略有上升，但3月份“核心”指标进一步放松的迹象应能让央行有更大的灵活性，使其能够根据近期预测，将重点放在即将公布的数据上。 第一季度GDP增长与加拿大央行1月份的预测“基本一致”，近期数据显示，在年初疲软之后，增长势头略有回升。RBC表示，劳动力市场状况也显示出企稳迹象，但失业率仍处于较低水平，并不意味着潜在的通胀压力正在加剧。 该行补充说，这种组合表明近期内进一步调整政策的紧迫性有限，并指出该行的基本预测假设利率在 2026 年之前保持不变，随着经济继续正常化，利率将从 2027 年开始逐步上调。
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