-- 加拿大皇家銀行資本市場策略師週二在一份報告中指出，阿聯酋退出歐佩克的決定短期內不太可能擾亂石油市場，但這表明，在持續的中東衝突中，這個海灣產油國正尋求對其產量政策擁有更大的控制權，因此其戰略調整也在進行更廣泛的調整。 多年來，阿聯酋一直致力於將投資轉化為利潤，擴大原油產能並推廣其穆爾班基準原油價格，而這項策略有時會加劇歐佩克內部的緊張關係。 加拿大皇家銀行分析師表示，圍繞產量基準的爭議，包括2021年7月導致協議延遲近兩週的僵局，凸顯了阿聯酋與其他成員國在產量配額問題上的摩擦。 分析師表示，阿聯酋的退出反映了這些緊張局勢的延續，因為該國一直在尋求更高的產量目標。隨後，阿聯酋在2023年推動修改其基準原油價格，導致複雜的配額重新分配，一些非洲產油國的配額減少。 然而，儘管政策有所轉變，但預計阿聯酋在衝突平息後，其石油產量不會大幅超過2026年初的水準。 這個海灣國家目前的石油產能已接近飽和，戰後重建的需求可能會抑制任何快速的供應成長。 阿聯酋當局在聲明中表示，將繼續「以循序漸進的方式」向市場投放更多石油，以適應市場需求和當前情況。 RBC分析師表示，這顯示在可預見的未來，全球石油系統的剩餘產能仍將集中在沙烏地阿拉伯。 此舉正值與伊朗的區域衝突的關鍵時刻，這場衝突加劇了人們對能源安全的擔憂，尤其是在具有重要戰略意義的霍爾木茲海峽附近。 阿聯酋一直是海灣國家中最強烈反對伊朗繼續控制該通道的國家之一，並列舉了伊朗多次對其領土發動無人機和飛彈襲擊的事件。 阿聯酋日益強硬的立場似乎更接近以色列，而非一些海灣鄰國。 RBC分析師預計，一旦衝突結束，阿布達比和以色列將在能源安全和關鍵基礎設施領域加強合作，可能包括在紅海等戰略區域進行聯合投資和擴大國防協議。 分析師表示，阿聯酋退出歐佩克並不意味著歐佩克即將分裂。由於目前沒有立即協調減產的需求，而且許多成員國正專注於戰後重建產能，預計該組織在短期內將保持整體完整性。
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Capstone Copper Q1 Profit Jumps Nearly 12-Fold, Beats Estimates On Higher Copper Prices
Capstone Copper (CS.TO) after the close Wednesday reported a nearly 12-fold surge in first-quarter adjusted net income as higher copper prices boosted earnings, with results topping analysts' estimates.The company posted record adjusted net income attributable to shareholders , excluding most one-time items, of US$94.8 million, or US$0.12 per share, up from US$8.1 million, or US$0.01 per share, a year earlier. The result exceeded FactSet analysts' estimate of US$0.11 per share.Capstone said the increase was driven by stronger earnings from mining operations, supported by higher realized copper prices.Revenue for the three months ended March 31 rose to US$652.5 million from US$533.3 million in the prior-year period, beating FactSet analysts' estimate of US$647.5 million.The company also reported record adjusted EBITDA of US$329.1 million for Q1 2026, up from US$179.9 million a year earlier, primarily due to higher realized copper prices, which rose 36% to US$5.92 per pound, and supported by stronger gold and silver prices. This marked the sixth consecutive quarter of record adjusted EBITDA, the company said.In its 2026 production outlook, the company issued guidance of 200,000 to 230,000 tonnes of copper and C1 cash costs guidance of $2.45 to $2.75 per payable pound of copper remains unchanged. 2026 capital expenditure, capitalized stripping, and exploration expenditure guidance is also unchanged."We continue to monitor and manage the impacts stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. To date we have not experienced any inventory or operational impacts, however cost pressures, notably from higher diesel and sulphuric acid prices, represent a headwind," Capstone said.The company said its MV Optimized Project progressed according to plan during Q1 2026 and the capital cost estimate of US$176 million is unchanged. MV Optimized is a capital-efficient brownfield expansion project providing incremental copper and gold production of approximately 20,000 tonnes and 6,000 ounces of gold per annum, respectively."For the remainder of 2026, we are focused on operational execution and continuing to advance our high-return organic growth opportunities, including executing the Mantoverde Optimized Project, advancing Santo Domingo to a sanctioning decision, and progressing our exploration strategy centered around district-scale growth. Despite recent geopolitical volatility, copper prices remain strong and fundamentals support continued momentum, reinforcing our ability to deliver significant value through our peer-leading growth pipeline," chief executive Cashel Meagher said,Company's shares closed down $0.21 to $10.84 on Toronto Stock Exchange.
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