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加拿大皇家銀行表示,在聯邦政府和加拿大央行發布最新消息之前,美元/加幣短期內可能會維持區間震盪。

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-- 加拿大皇家銀行資本市場預計,加拿大央行下週將保持「穩健」的政策態勢,鑑於過去一個月經濟數據趨於穩定,央行的表態「可能比3月的會議更加鷹派」。 加拿大皇家銀行在周五發布的例行「加幣每週簡訊」中表示,其仍認為加拿大央行將在2026年維持利率不變,並在2027年升息。升息提前至2026年下半年的風險高於今年降息的可能性(「但這是一個緩慢的過程」)。該行也補充道,年度中性利率評估預計不會改變2.25%至3.25%的區間。 關於加美利差,加拿大皇家銀行指出,伊朗衝突帶來的不確定性導致加幣利率表現優於美國利率,加美10年期公債利差從上週五的-79個基點升至-84個基點。 從技術面來看,加拿大皇家銀行(RBC)的喬治·戴維斯(George Davis)表示,如果加拿大10年期國債收益率的日線收盤價跌破3.44%的阻力位,則近期的下跌趨勢將得以延續,並可能進一步下探至3.39%的近期低點以及3月18日的低點3.36%。初步支撐位在3.50%和3.55%,若要打破看漲債券的預期,則需要回升至3.62%以上。 在加拿大央行會議召開前,RBC指出,聯邦政府週二發布的財政更新報告「更有可能顯示財政狀況改善」。 RBC預計,在執政的自由黨本月稍早贏得議會多數席次後,財政支出計畫不會發生重大變化。 RBC表示,風險偏好在於剛結束的2025-2026財年和目前的2026-2027財年,赤字都會降低,財政數據也會有所改善。 RBC補充道,除非美加利率差收窄速度超過預期,或市場對美國資產賦予更高的風險溢價,否則美元/加幣短期內可能仍將維持區間震盪。

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