-- 加拿大皇家銀行(RBC)表示,儘管美國關稅規模空前,但主要經濟體在2025年經受住了貿易衝擊,只是暗流湧動,造成了顯著的分配格局變化。 該銀行指出,美國進口迅速調整,減少了對中國等高關稅地區的依賴,但由於美國消費者、企業和政府持續支出,2025年美國進口總額仍維持成長。不涉及美國的全球貿易中,近90%的貿易額持續成長。 加拿大皇家銀行指出,分配格局的影響較為集中。加拿大整體國內生產毛額(GDP)表現優於預期,但某些特定產業——例如鋼鐵出口下降30%,汽車和鋁業——以及安大略省和魁北克省等實際關稅稅率超過6%的地區,都受到了嚴重衝擊。 該銀行指出,加拿大高度整合的跨境供應鏈是大多數美國海外貿易夥伴所面臨的挑戰。儘管近90%的加拿大出口商品仍免關稅,但到2025年,加拿大在美國進口市場的份額仍將下降。 加拿大皇家銀行(RBC)指出,世界各國能夠承受美國貿易衝擊,而加拿大則難以做到這一點。這一年,全球對貿易政策不確定性的因應能力有所提升,美國在加拿大出口中所佔份額有所下降。但即便如此,這一比例仍高達71.6%,這意味著加拿大從根本上來說比大多數其他貿易夥伴更容易受到美國貿易衝擊的影響。
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