-- 加拿大皇家銀行資本市場（RBC Capital Markets）週日發布的一份報告指出，美伊核談判再次陷入僵局，伊朗威脅封鎖霍爾木茲海峽，這給全球石油供應和市場穩定帶來了新的風險。 談判破裂的原因是華盛頓堅持伊朗不進行鈾濃縮，這進一步印證了加拿大皇家銀行的觀點，即如果沒有讓步，達成協議的可能性不大，而且衝突長期持續和供應中斷的可能性也隨之增加。 報導稱，隨著外交努力受挫，白宮面臨兩種選擇：要麼退讓，允許伊朗對霍爾木茲海峽擁有更大的控制權；要麼升級軍事行動，以對抗德黑蘭對過境運輸的影響力。 分析師在報告中指出，川普總統發出封鎖警告表明他不願讓步，並可能試圖透過威脅切斷伊朗原油對中國煉油廠的供應來向中國施壓。 然而，報告補充說，中國的反應仍然不明朗，因為中國已經建立了相當可觀的石油儲備，並且可能從美國將軍事重心轉向中東的戰略中獲益。 加拿大皇家銀行（RBC）警告稱，對伊朗實施封鎖將比以往在委內瑞拉採取的行動更為複雜，並可能引發德黑蘭對地區能源基礎設施的報復性打擊。 報告強調，伊朗支持的伊拉克民兵組織是一個被忽視的威脅，並指出他們涉嫌參與了近期對科威特和沙烏地阿拉伯關鍵基礎設施的攻擊。 這些攻擊包括破壞東西輸油管，凸顯了除海上中斷之外的更廣泛的地區風險，並引發了人們對關鍵能源系統韌性的擔憂。 儘管市場正密切關注胡塞武裝的行動升級，但加拿大皇家銀行表示，如果伊拉克民兵在談判破裂和封鎖言論升級後加強行動力度，市場情緒可能會發生更劇烈的變化。 該行重申，衝突持續時間仍然是影響油價的關鍵因素，儘管美國領導層的表現已顯著影響了短期市場預期。 加拿大皇家銀行指出，儘管現貨市場供應緊張，交易員難以找到短期供應緩解措施，但白宮的溝通仍有助於抑製油價，儘管市場面臨許多幹擾。 如果封鎖措施得以實施，分析師預計現貨市場和紙幣市場之間的連結將更加緊密，隨著供應限制的日益凸顯，價格波動可能會加劇。
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