-- 加拿大皇家銀行（RBC）在上週五發布的《前瞻性指引》報告中指出，本週的焦點將集中在加拿大央行週三的利率決議上，以及週四公佈的2月份國內生產毛額（GDP）數據上。 RBC預計，加拿大央行將連續第四次會議維持利率不變，但同時表示，政策制定者將密切關注能源價格上漲對通膨的影響。報告也指出，4月份整體消費者物價指數（CPI）成長率可能自2023年12月以來首次超過1%至3%的通膨目標區間。 但RBC指出，加拿大央行的利率政策無法影響全球油價，而且利率對經濟的影響存在滯後性，這意味著央行需要根據未來的通膨預期而非當前的通膨水準來制定貨幣政策。 加拿大皇家銀行(RBC)預計，只要通膨預期和除能源價格上漲之外的更廣泛通膨壓力保持可控，加拿大央行(BoC)將對因供應驅動型燃料成本飆升而造成的短期內購房能力挑戰保持謹慎態度。 RBC指出，上週加拿大央行發布的《商業展望調查》(BOC)顯示，通膨預期略有上升，但3月份「核心」指標進一步放鬆的跡象應能讓央行有更大的靈活性，使其能夠根據近期預測，將重點放在即將公佈的數據上。 第一季GDP成長與加拿大央行1月的預測“基本一致”，近期數據顯示，在年初疲軟之後，成長動能略有回升。 RBC表示，勞動市場狀況也顯示出穩定跡象，但失業率仍處於較低水平，並不代表潛在的通膨壓力正在加劇。 該行補充說，這種組合表明近期內進一步調整政策的緊迫性有限，並指出該行的基本預測假設利率在 2026 年之前保持不變，隨著經濟繼續正常化，利率將從 2027 年開始逐步上調。
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