-- 加拿大帝國商業銀行（CIBC）表示，鑑於未來前景不明朗，加拿大央行週三決定維持政策利率在2.25%不變並不令人意外。 CIBC指出，加拿大央行假設油價將在2027年年中逐步回落至每桶75美元，這仍將推高短期通膨，但對經濟成長前景的影響與先前預測基本一致，即經濟成長在消除經濟疲軟方面進展緩慢。 CIBC有理由改變其先前對加拿大央行今年維持利率不變的預期。如果沒有中東衝突，持續的經濟疲軟和核心通膨下行壓力很可能會促使央行採取寬鬆政策。 然而，CIBC指出，等到油價充分緩解通膨擔憂時，降息的窗口期可能已經過去。 CIBC的核心通膨預期較為溫和，因此升息「不明智」。 蒙特利爾銀行(BMO)對2027年經濟成長的預期比加拿大央行略高，足以預測明年隨著產出缺口縮小，升息幅度可能達到兩次，每次0.25個百分點。但這取決於美墨加協定(USMCA)談判能否阻止進一步的貿易壁壘，並能對加拿大目前面臨的行業關稅做出一些小幅減免。 據加拿大帝國商業銀行(CIBC)稱，週三的公告發布後，加幣(CAD)匯率幾乎沒有變化，期貨市場對年底利率預期的反應也較為平淡。
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International
Fed Chair Powell Says He Will Remain as Governor for Period of Time After Chair Term Ends
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday at a press conference that he will remain on the Federal Reserve board for a period of time after his term as chair ends on May 15, noting the recent attacks on the Fed and saying that "the things that have happened really in the last three months I think left me no choice but to stay until I see them through at least that long."An investigation into Powell's actions as chair during the remodeling of headquarters at the Fed was halted by the Department of Justice, but it could be reopened if the Fed's inspector general finds wrongdoing, providing uncertainty."I have said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality and I stand by that," Powell said. "I am encouraged by recent developments, and I am watching the remaining steps in this process carefully."Powell said that his decision to remain on board has nothing to do with political comments, but rather his concern about the recent attack on the Fed by the Trump administration."After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as governor for a period of time to be determined," Powell said. "I plan to keep a low profile as a governor. There is only one chair of the Federal Reserve.""I will leave when I think it's appropriate to do so," he added.At the meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain its target rate at a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, but there were dissents in favor of both a lowering of the policy rate by one member and in favor of eliminating the bias toward easing in the statement by three members.
Oil & Energy
UAE Pushes for Greater Control Over Oil Output, Limited Near-Term Market Impact, RBC Says
The UAE's decision to leave OPEC is unlikely to disrupt oil markets in the near term, but points to a broader strategic realignment as the Gulf producer seeks greater control over its output policy amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note on Tuesday.The UAE has for years pushed to monetize investments in expanding crude capacity and promoting its Murban benchmark, a strategy that has at times strained relations within OPEC.RBC analysts said disputes over production baselines, including a July 2021 standoff that delayed an agreement for nearly two weeks, underscored friction between the UAE and other members over output quotas.The analysts said the UAE's departure reflects a continuation of these tensions, as the country has consistently sought higher production targets. A subsequent push in 2023 to revise its baseline led to a complex redistribution of quotas, reducing allocations for some African producers.However, despite the policy shift, the UAE is not expected to significantly increase production beyond levels seen in early 2026 once the conflict subsides.The Gulf state has been operating close to its current capacity, and post-war reconstruction demands are likely to temper any rapid supply increases.UAE authorities, in a statement, said it would continue to bring additional barrels to market "in a gradual and measured manner," aligned with demand and prevailing conditions.RBC analysts said this suggests spare capacity within the global system will remain concentrated in Saudi Arabia for the foreseeable future.The move comes at a critical moment in the regional conflict with Iran, which has heightened concerns over energy security, particularly around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.The UAE has been among the most vocal Gulf states opposing any scenario in which Iran maintains influence over the passage, citing repeated drone and missile attacks on its territory.The country's increasingly assertive stance appears to align more closely with Israel than with some Gulf neighbors.RBC analysts expect closer cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Israel on energy security and critical infrastructure once the conflict ends, potentially including joint investments and expanded defense agreements in strategic areas such as the Red Sea.The analyst said the UAE's exit does not signal an imminent fragmentation of OPEC. With no immediate requirement for coordinated production cuts and many member states focused on rebuilding capacity after the conflict, the group is expected to remain broadly intact in the near term.