-- 加拿大帝國商業銀行(CIBC)表示,週四公佈國內生產毛額(GDP)數據後,加拿大公債殖利率有所下降,部分抵銷了前一天因市場預期加拿大央行鷹派言論而出現的上漲行情。 該行指出,加拿大經濟成長似乎在第一季有所復甦,但遠未達到最佳狀態,3月的初步數據顯示,季末經濟成長可能再次停滯。 GDP成長和就業持續不平衡表明,經濟中的閒置產能尚未被消化,並將繼續抵消能源價格上漲的影響,從而抑制核心通膨指標。 因此,CIBC仍然認為,加拿大央行可以忽略當前通膨率的飆升,並在今年維持利率不變。 2月的月GDP數據顯示季增0.2%,與市場普遍預期一致。 3月份GDP的初步數據顯示,該月GDP與上月持平。 加拿大帝國商業銀行(CIBC)表示,儘管第一季經濟成長似乎接近加拿大央行貨幣政策報告的預測,但3月再次出現的停滯令人擔憂,因為這會影響春季的經濟動能。消費者支出似乎再次放緩,考慮到汽油價格上漲帶來的壓力以及勞動力市場仍然疲軟,這種情況是可以理解的。 該行仍認為,即使能源價格上漲的影響在某些領域顯現,加拿大經濟仍有足夠的閒置產能來維持核心通膨指標的溫和水平,這將使加拿大央行能夠將利率維持在2026年之前不變。
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