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加拿大帝國商業銀行表示,加拿大銀行似乎可以「按兵不動」。

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-- 加拿大央行將“嚴陣以待”,但這不僅是為了應對高通膨,也是為了應對經濟成長乏力和過度閒置產能。加拿大帝國商業銀行(CIBC)在周三的政策聲明後表示,這兩種風險共同作用,導致利率維持在2.25%不變。 該行指出,鑑於未來前景不明朗,將政策利率維持在2.25%並不令人意外。 CIBC表示,加拿大央行假設油價將在2027年年中逐步回落至每桶75美元,這仍將推高短期通膨,但對經濟成長前景的影響與先前預測基本一致,即經濟閒置產能的消除進程將非常緩慢。 該行表示,今年和2027年的國內生產毛額(GDP)成長速度略有加快,但潛在產出範圍也隨之上調,這意味著經濟閒置產能的收窄程度不會改變。加拿大央行認為,目前「幾乎沒有跡象」表明能源價格上漲會波及核心通膨,但會密切關注,並「不會讓能源價格上漲演變為持續性通膨」。 如果這聽起來鷹派,值得注意的是,加拿大央行並不認為這種情況會發生。該行預測通膨率將飆升至3%,但在明年初將回落至2%的目標水準。加拿大帝國商業銀行(CIBC)也持相同觀點。加拿大央行表示,雖然可能需要調整政策利率,但這些調整「預計幅度不大」。 這聽起來像是加拿大央行認為可以“維持利率不變”,因為它列舉了兩種可能需要降息或升息的情況:貿易限制,例如,如果能源價格引發更廣泛的通膨。

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