-- 加拿大帝国商业银行（CIBC）表示，鉴于未来前景不明朗，加拿大央行周三决定维持政策利率在2.25%不变并不令人意外。 CIBC指出，加拿大央行假设油价将在2027年年中逐步回落至每桶75美元，这仍将推高短期通胀，但对经济增长前景的影响与此前预测基本一致，即经济增长在消除经济疲软方面进展缓慢。 CIBC有理由改变其此前对加拿大央行今年维持利率不变的预期。如果没有中东冲突，持续的经济疲软和核心通胀下行压力很可能会促使央行采取宽松政策。 然而，CIBC指出，等到油价充分缓解通胀担忧时，降息的窗口期可能已经过去。CIBC的核心通胀预期较为温和，因此加息“不明智”。 蒙特利尔银行(BMO)对2027年经济增长的预期比加拿大央行略高，足以预测明年随着产出缺口缩小，加息幅度可能达到两次，每次0.25个百分点。但这取决于美墨加协定(USMCA)谈判能否阻止进一步的贸易壁垒，并能对加拿大目前面临的行业关税做出一些小幅减免。 据加拿大帝国商业银行(CIBC)称，周三的公告发布后，加元(CAD)汇率几乎没有变化，期货市场对年底利率预期的反应也较为平淡。
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