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加拿大帝国商业银行表示,由于3月份CPI涨幅低于预期,加拿大国债收益率下跌。

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-- 加拿大帝国商业银行(CIBC)表示,4月份的总体通胀率为2.4%,其中未经季节性调整的环比增长0.9%,经季节性调整后环比增长0.5%,略低于市场普遍预期的2.6%,但较上月的1.8%仍大幅上升。 该行在周一公布消费者价格指数数据后指出,燃油价格(尤其是汽油价格)上涨是此次通胀加速的主要驱动因素。剔除能源价格后,5月份的通胀率实际上略有放缓。 CIBC表示,由于投资者减少了对加拿大央行今年加息的预期,债券收益率在数据公布后有所下降。 该行补充道,展望未来,汽油价格的进一步上涨将导致4月份总体通胀率进一步攀升,甚至可能超过3%。因此,假设近期全球油价的部分回落能够持续,通胀有望略有降温。此外,联邦燃油消费税的暂时中止也将在一定程度上起到帮助作用——这将使5月份的总体通胀率下降约0.2个百分点。 随着机票价格等领域通胀传导效应的迹象更加明显,核心通胀指标在夏季几个月可能会略有回升,但经济内部持续的疲软应能抑制国内驱动的服务业通胀,加拿大帝国商业银行(CIBC)仍然认为加拿大央行将在2026年全年维持利率不变。

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