-- 加拿大帝国商业银行(CIBC)表示,加拿大目前的就业市场并不十分强劲,但可能比官方数据显示的要健康一些。 该银行在一份致客户的报告中指出,官方失业率包含了15至19岁在读高中且积极求职的青少年,而这一群体目前在总失业人数中所占比例高于正常水平。 CIBC表示,许多高中生不应被归类为失业人员,因为他们的主要精力都放在学习上。 如果将高中生排除在失业率计算之外,总失业率将从目前的6.7%降至6.2%。换句话说,如果不计入“失业”的高中生,加拿大的失业率会显著降低。 CIBC指出,一些高中生必须工作来养活自己或家人,而这一群体的人数难以精确统计。然而,在经济衰退期间,真正需要工作的人更有可能继续寻找工作,而那些工作并非必需的人则倾向于退出劳动力市场。 这种模式在新冠疫情期间尤为明显,高中生的就业参与率下降幅度远超其他群体。 从政策角度来看,应重点关注既未入学也未参与劳动力市场的青年,以及失业的非学生青年。目前,这一弱势群体人数约为47万,占总人口的比例与2019年基本持平。 该银行补充道,以上并非意在淡化加拿大青年在劳动力市场面临的实际挑战。尽管实际青年失业率可能低于官方数据,但仍然高得令人无法接受。 此外,15至19岁人群劳动参与率的下降,虽然从宏观经济角度来看或许并非重大问题,但却令人担忧,因为这意味着更少的年轻人能够获得宝贵的就业市场经验,而这些经验对他们未来的发展大有裨益。 另一个重要因素是年轻人可获得的就业机会的质量。加拿大帝国商业银行(CIBC)指出,如果加拿大年轻人主要从事晋升机会有限的工作,那么其负面影响可能比表面看起来更大。
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