-- 蒙特利尔银行(BMO)表示,假设经济增长和通胀大致符合当前预期,加拿大央行可能长期维持利率不变。 该行指出,与此相符的是,加拿大央行周三在其4月份的年度利率调整报告中,维持了2.25%至3.25%的预期中性利率区间不变。 这意味着目前的政策利率恰好处于预期区间的低端。 蒙特利尔银行表示,人口增长停滞及其对劳动力增长的拖累是导致中性利率走低的原因。 该行认为,生产率增长有所改善,以及美国中性利率的坚挺——甚至略有上升——是导致中性利率走高的原因,而美国中性利率会对加拿大产生影响。 综上所述,蒙特利尔银行对其观点——加拿大央行今年将维持利率不变——持乐观态度。
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