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加拿大央行維持利率中立不變,BMO表示,今年以來利率很可能維持不變。

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-- 蒙特利爾銀行(BMO)表示,假設經濟成長和通膨大致符合當前預期,加拿大央行可能長期維持利率不變。 該行指出,與此相符的是,加拿大央行週三在其4月份的年度利率調整報告中,維持了2.25%至3.25%的預期中性利率區間不變。 這意味著目前的政策利率恰好處於預期區間的低端。 蒙特利爾銀行表示,人口成長停滯及其對勞動力成長的拖累是導致中性利率走低的原因。 該行認為,生產力成長有所改善,以及美國中性利率的堅挺——甚至略有上升——是導致中性利率走高的原因,而美國中性利率會對加拿大產生影響。 綜上所述,蒙特利爾銀行對其觀點——加拿大央行今年將維持利率不變——持樂觀態度。

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