-- 加拿大國家銀行表示,3月的勞動力調查(LFS)證實,鑑於與美國的貿易緊張局勢以及如今中東的地緣政治局勢,加拿大的經濟形勢在當前高度不確定的經濟環境下依然「脆弱」。如果中東局勢陷入僵局,可能會使全球經濟陷入衰退。 中東局勢將在未來幾個月推高通膨,尤其是油價上漲。但加拿大國家銀行認為,在提高利率之前,應保持耐心。 加拿大國家銀行指出,在這種不確定的環境下,貨幣政策似乎並不特別具有刺激作用,這體現在疲軟的房地產市場活動、溫和的信貸成長以及預計2026年將出現的抵押貸款償還衝擊。 此外,在石油危機爆發之前,通膨正朝著正確的方向發展,加拿大國家銀行目前並不擔心過去兩個月觀察到的平均時薪加速增長;3月份正式員工的工資同比增長5.1%,2月份同比增長4.2%。 事實上,加拿大統計局指出,在控制了構成因素後,所有僱員的平均時薪僅上漲了3.6%,與近幾個月的水平持平。因此,鑑於加拿大國家銀行認為勞動市場仍處於供過於求的狀態,總薪資的上漲可能只是暫時的。
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