-- 加拿大國家銀行表示,國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)最新發布的《世界經濟展望》(WEO)正值地緣政治格局快速變化之際,這使得經濟和財政預測——即使在最「正常」的時期也已十分困難——變得更加具有挑戰性。 這份題為《戰爭陰影下的全球經濟》的2026年4月版《世界經濟展望》於週二發布,承認了這種不確定性,並提出了一個基於情景的預測,該預測取決於中東局勢的發展。 然而,加拿大國家銀行指出,在基本情境預測中,全球經濟成長路徑僅比先前的預期略有下降。 加拿大國家銀行表示,儘管加拿大的成長前景基本上保持不變,但各國政府已採取措施保護/捍衛對貿易高度敏感的經濟體。 加拿大國家銀行指出,這種額外的預算赤字已反映在IMF的最新預測中。淨借款預計再次大幅增加,這與其他七國集團(G7)國家的情況方向不一致,後者的淨借款情況較2025年10月IMF報告有所改善。加拿大國家銀行補充道,這並不意味著加拿大的財政狀況不再良好。儘管疫情後預算赤字有所上升,但與其他地區相比,尤其是與預計未來幾年不會出現同樣程度財政緊縮的美國相比,加拿大的赤字仍然可控。 同時,加拿大國家銀行指出,由於政府/公共退休金層面擁有大量金融資產,加拿大「嚴重的」淨債務水準只會繼續攀升。
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