-- 加拿大国家银行的泰勒·施莱希和达伦·金在4月22日的一份报告中指出，上周公布的一系列加拿大住房数据显示，此前的趋势延续到了3月份。 报告补充道：“住房活动依然低迷，技术上进一步下滑，而房价则继续缓慢但稳步下滑。抵押贷款信贷趋势也反映出活动的疲软。” 加拿大国家银行表示，尽管加拿大抵押贷款存量正在扩张，但增速低于正常水平，即便在过去两年里，加拿大央行已累计降息近300个基点。报告还指出，加拿大经济“众所周知”对利率非常敏感，但住房需求却“出人意料地反应迟钝”。 加拿大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆曾表示，2.25%的政策利率“起到了一定的刺激作用”，但该行指出，“一定程度”似乎夸大了实际的支持力度，至少在住房市场是如此。 加拿大国家银行表示，在2月份的新抵押贷款活动中，加拿大人继续涌入浮动利率产品。该行指出，曾经占据主导地位的五年期固定利率抵押贷款仍然不受欢迎，因为选择固定利率的家庭更倾向于较短的期限。加拿大国家银行表示：“这种策略似乎是受三年期利率略微走低以及借贷成本最终回落至新冠疫情前水平的预期所驱动的。”但随后补充道：“我们对此并不抱太大希望。” 加拿大国家银行表示，尽管市场目前已将2026年加息的风险计入价格，但近期的市场行为是否会发生变化尚不明朗。该行补充说，更高的固定利率（通过加拿大政府债券收益率的上升）使得浮动利率更具吸引力，并应能阻止家庭锁定更长时间的利率，例如五年。“这意味着今年春季三年期互换交易的支付压力将相对较大。” 加拿大国家银行指出，由于市场持续低迷，加拿大房地产协会上周下调了对住房活动和价格的预期。银行还表示：“这并非新趋势，过去五年中，加拿大房地产协会已被迫多次下调预期。” 加拿大国家银行认为：“总体而言，新一轮通胀使加息风险偏向加息，但包括住房市场在内的实际经济数据仍然不利于收紧货币政策。”
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