-- 加拿大政府周二公布了春季经济展望报告,而总理马克·卡尼在前一天宣布计划设立一个初始资本为250亿加元的主权财富基金时,已经抢先报道了这一消息,加拿大丰业银行表示。 该银行指出,这基本上就是此次展望报告中“投资”议程的全部内容,除此之外,未来净新增资本支出仅为10亿加元。 预计的财政意外之财——高达603亿加元——大部分被用于额外支出545亿加元。丰业银行指出,情况有些复杂,其中“新措施”(净额375亿加元)涵盖了诸如食品杂货补贴和燃油税暂停等已知项目,而“2025年预算案以来的政策”(170亿加元)则以附件中一系列令人眼花缭乱的部门支出延期和调整清单的形式出现。 最新预测显示,2026财年财政赤字大幅下降,为669亿加元,低于此前预测的783亿加元。但计入新增支出后,往年赤字与此前预测基本持平。赤字略有改善主要得益于未来一段时间内国内生产总值(GDP)的走强。 加拿大丰业银行指出,由于债务水平下降以及GDP基数扩大,净债务下降速度略有加快。 由于预算案公布前已明确支持措施,新措施对短期经济增长的影响微乎其微。尽管过去六个月公布的联邦财政支持总额已接近1450亿加元,但仍需进一步落实,丰业银行补充道。 加拿大丰业银行认为,加拿大央行周三的政策决定不会推翻其既定策略,但鉴于当前经济形势动荡,央行可能会强化其乐观预期。尽管市场普遍预期维持利率不变,但此次更新强化了丰业银行经济部的观点,即下一步很可能是加息——或许很快就会上调。 丰业银行表示,否则,此次更新在本周众多消息中将显得微不足道。加拿大的投资计划正在逐步推进,但这是一项长期投资,市场可能需要逐步消化其潜在回报。 目前,执行情况和地缘政治风险将占据主导地位。丰业银行希望在今年秋季预算案出台时,这两个方面都能获得更清晰的指引——至少在方向上是如此。 周二,丰业银行明确表示,政府愿意继续增加支出。
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