-- 伍德麦肯兹分析师周五在一份报告中指出,欧洲成品油市场正发出喜忧参半的信号,阿姆斯特丹-鹿特丹-安特卫普枢纽的原油库存波动日益加剧,对价格和市场情绪产生着越来越大的影响。 分析师表示,ARA码头的原油库存于3月底大幅飙升,扭转了此前的下降趋势。 截至2月27日当周,库存为4660万桶,到3月中旬已降至四年来的季节性低点。然而,在接下来的几周里,库存反弹超过800万桶,到月底达到5470万桶,创下四年来同期最高水平。 相比之下,汽油库存的走势则截然相反。截至3月6日当周,汽油库存达到245万桶,到月底下降近20%,至约200万桶,创下四年来的季节性低点,表明汽油供应趋紧。 包括柴油和航空煤油在内的中馏分油价格波动相对较小。 柴油库存于3月初开始下降,截至3月13日当周降至344万桶,随后回升至3月27日的360万桶。航空煤油库存走势类似,从2月底的86万桶增至四周后的93万桶。 分析师表示,不同产品市场价格差异的部分原因是炼油厂加工的原油种类不同。例如,北海等地生产的轻质原油通常能产出更高比例的汽油。然而,即使在同一地区,不同原油的产率也可能存在显著差异。 例如,挪威阿斯加德油田的原油汽油产率约为41%,而英国福蒂斯油田的汽油产率则不到36%。 库存趋势的对比凸显了密切监测炼油厂投入和区域库存水平的必要性,尤其是在欧洲,ARA枢纽动态仍然是衡量更广泛市场状况的关键晴雨表。
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