-- 伍德麥肯茲分析師週五在一份報告中指出,歐洲成品油市場正發出喜憂參半的信號,阿姆斯特丹-鹿特丹-安特衛普樞紐的原油庫存波動日益加劇,對價格和市場情緒產生越來越大的影響。 分析師表示,ARA碼頭的原油庫存於3月底大幅飆升,扭轉了先前的下降趨勢。 截至2月27日當週,庫存為4,660萬桶,到3月中旬已降至四年來的季節性低點。然而,在接下來的幾周里,庫存反彈超過800萬桶,到月底達到5,470萬桶,創下四年來同期最高水準。 相比之下,汽油庫存的走勢則截然相反。截至3月6日當週,汽油庫存達到245萬桶,到月底下降近20%,至約200萬桶,創下四年來的季節性低點,顯示汽油供應趨緊。 包括柴油和航空煤油在內的中餾分油價格波動相對較小。 柴油庫存於3月初開始下降,截至3月13日當週降至344萬桶,隨後回升至3月27日的360萬桶。航空煤油庫存走勢類似,從2月底的86萬桶增加到四週後的93萬桶。 分析師表示,不同產品市場價格差異的部分原因是煉油廠加工的原油種類不同。例如,北海等地生產的輕質原油通常能產出更高比例的汽油。然而,即使在同一地區,不同原油的產率也可能有顯著差異。 例如,挪威阿斯嘉油田的原油汽油產率約為41%,而英國福蒂斯油田的汽油產率則不到36%。 庫存趨勢的對比凸顯了密切監測煉油廠投入和區域庫存水準的必要性,尤其是在歐洲,ARA樞紐動態仍然是衡量更廣泛市場狀況的關鍵晴雨表。
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