-- 義大利能源巨頭埃尼集團（Eni，股票代碼：E）週五修正了其2026年天然氣和石油價格預測，並警告稱，全球能源市場嚴重低估了持續衝突的長期影響。 該公司目前預計布蘭特原油價格將達到每桶83美元，高於先前預測的70美元，並將荷蘭TTF天然氣價格預期從每兆瓦時36歐元上調至50歐元。 埃尼集團首席轉型和財務長弗朗切斯科·加泰在季度財報電話會議上警告稱，這場危機遠非簡單的停火就能解決。根據FactSet網站上公佈的電話會議記錄，火災和轟炸對關鍵基礎設施和生產設施造成的破壞，需要比市場目前預期更長的恢復期。 霍爾木茲海峽的有效關閉——這條對全球約五分之一石油和液化天然氣運輸至關重要的通道——已經導致布蘭特原油價格較上季上漲24%。 該公司表示，雖然高油價提振了埃尼集團的上游業務，但同時，由於產能利用率下降，這場衝突也給煉油利潤率帶來了壓力。
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Hormuz Shipping Near Standstill as Oil Tops $100/bbl, Bloomberg Analysis Says
Dual blockades have halted most Hormuz shipping, leaving only a few Iran-linked vessels moving as oil trades above $100 per barrel, according to a Bloomberg analysis on Monday.Iranian and US blockades have shut the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the key global energy corridor largely inactive, the analysis said.Only a small number of vessels, mainly tied to Iran, are transiting as most operators avoid the route after last week's escalation, according to the analysis.Iranian gunboats fired on ships while US forces seized two oil tankers last week, sharply increasing risks and reducing traffic through the strait, the analysis said.Three Iran-linked vessels moved out of the Persian Gulf through the strait Monday morning, with no ships entering during the same period, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.Two bulk carriers and one liquefied petroleum gas tanker linked to Tehran exited the Gulf on Monday, extending a period of limited shipping activity, the analysis said.Only a handful of vessels departed Sunday, including an Iran-linked fuel tanker, a bulk carrier, and two regional cargo ships, while a China-linked fuel tanker entered the Gulf, the analysis added.Several Iran-linked vessels remained near the Gulf of Oman after exiting, leaving uncertainty about whether they paused for regional stops or were delayed by the US naval blockade, the analysis said.Ships continuing transit used a narrow northern corridor near Larak and Qeshm islands, a route approved by Iranian authorities for limited passage.The US blockade is prompting vessels to switch off tracking signals, reducing visibility and making it harder to measure actual traffic volumes, according to the analysis.Limited tracking data may lead to higher reported ship numbers later when vessels reappear outside risky areas, showing gaps in real-time monitoring, the analysis noted.Even before recent restrictions, Iran-linked vessels often disabled tracking near Hormuz and reactivated signals near the Strait of Malacca about 13 days from Kharg Island, the analysis said.
Mining & Metals
Deutsche Bank Sees USD/CAD at 1.25 at End 2028 From Current 1.37
Deutsche Bank said it sees USD/CAD at 1.25 at the end of 2028 from the current 1.37 level.At the end of this year, USD/CAD the bank's forecast is for 1.33, while it's 1.27 at the end of 2027 as the Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US dollar (USD).
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US Markets
Oil Prices Rise Amid US-Iran Stalemate
Crude oil prices rose Monday as US-Iran talks appeared to have stalled, even as Tehran reportedly offered a new proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate crude futures were last up 2.4% at $96.64 per barrel. Brent advanced 3.2% to $108.73.Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi visited Pakistan twice over the weekend, while President Donald Trump called off US officials' previously announced trip to Islamabad.Iran has submitted a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and delay talks on uranium enrichment, Axios reported, citing a US official and two other sources.Uranium enrichment and Iran's control of the crucial waterway have been key sticking points during talks between between Washington and Tehran.A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire between the US and Iran paused American and Israeli strikes on Tehran, but there's no framework yet for a long-lasting peace deal."Oil is trading stronger this morning after attempts to get US-Iran peace talks back on track broke down, erasing hopes for a resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon," ING Bank Head of Commodities Strategy said in a note on Monday. "The lack of progress means the market is tightening every day, requiring oil prices to reprice at higher levels."