-- 意大利能源巨头埃尼集团（Eni，股票代码：E）周五修正了其2026年天然气和石油价格预测，并警告称，全球能源市场严重低估了持续冲突的长期影响。 该公司目前预计布伦特原油价格将达到每桶83美元，高于此前预测的70美元，并将荷兰TTF天然气价格预期从每兆瓦时36欧元上调至50欧元。 埃尼集团首席转型和财务官弗朗切斯科·加泰在季度财报电话会议上警告称，这场危机远非简单的停火就能解决。根据FactSet网站上公布的电话会议记录，火灾和轰炸对关键基础设施和生产设施造成的破坏，需要比市场目前预期更长的恢复期。 霍尔木兹海峡的有效关闭——这条对全球约五分之一石油和液化天然气运输至关重要的通道——已经导致布伦特原油价格环比上涨24%。 该公司表示，虽然高油价提振了埃尼集团的上游业务，但与此同时，由于产能利用率下降，这场冲突也给炼油利润率带来了压力。
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Hormuz Shipping Near Standstill as Oil Tops $100/bbl, Bloomberg Analysis Says
Dual blockades have halted most Hormuz shipping, leaving only a few Iran-linked vessels moving as oil trades above $100 per barrel, according to a Bloomberg analysis on Monday.Iranian and US blockades have shut the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the key global energy corridor largely inactive, the analysis said.Only a small number of vessels, mainly tied to Iran, are transiting as most operators avoid the route after last week's escalation, according to the analysis.Iranian gunboats fired on ships while US forces seized two oil tankers last week, sharply increasing risks and reducing traffic through the strait, the analysis said.Three Iran-linked vessels moved out of the Persian Gulf through the strait Monday morning, with no ships entering during the same period, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.Two bulk carriers and one liquefied petroleum gas tanker linked to Tehran exited the Gulf on Monday, extending a period of limited shipping activity, the analysis said.Only a handful of vessels departed Sunday, including an Iran-linked fuel tanker, a bulk carrier, and two regional cargo ships, while a China-linked fuel tanker entered the Gulf, the analysis added.Several Iran-linked vessels remained near the Gulf of Oman after exiting, leaving uncertainty about whether they paused for regional stops or were delayed by the US naval blockade, the analysis said.Ships continuing transit used a narrow northern corridor near Larak and Qeshm islands, a route approved by Iranian authorities for limited passage.The US blockade is prompting vessels to switch off tracking signals, reducing visibility and making it harder to measure actual traffic volumes, according to the analysis.Limited tracking data may lead to higher reported ship numbers later when vessels reappear outside risky areas, showing gaps in real-time monitoring, the analysis noted.Even before recent restrictions, Iran-linked vessels often disabled tracking near Hormuz and reactivated signals near the Strait of Malacca about 13 days from Kharg Island, the analysis said.
Mining & Metals
Deutsche Bank Sees USD/CAD at 1.25 at End 2028 From Current 1.37
Deutsche Bank said it sees USD/CAD at 1.25 at the end of 2028 from the current 1.37 level.At the end of this year, USD/CAD the bank's forecast is for 1.33, while it's 1.27 at the end of 2027 as the Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US dollar (USD).
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US Markets
Oil Prices Rise Amid US-Iran Stalemate
Crude oil prices rose Monday as US-Iran talks appeared to have stalled, even as Tehran reportedly offered a new proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate crude futures were last up 2.4% at $96.64 per barrel. Brent advanced 3.2% to $108.73.Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi visited Pakistan twice over the weekend, while President Donald Trump called off US officials' previously announced trip to Islamabad.Iran has submitted a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and delay talks on uranium enrichment, Axios reported, citing a US official and two other sources.Uranium enrichment and Iran's control of the crucial waterway have been key sticking points during talks between between Washington and Tehran.A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire between the US and Iran paused American and Israeli strikes on Tehran, but there's no framework yet for a long-lasting peace deal."Oil is trading stronger this morning after attempts to get US-Iran peace talks back on track broke down, erasing hopes for a resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon," ING Bank Head of Commodities Strategy said in a note on Monday. "The lack of progress means the market is tightening every day, requiring oil prices to reprice at higher levels."