-- 儘管中東衝突持續,但中國經濟在3月加速成長,生產和需求都有所成長。 根據國家統計局週四公佈的數據,中國第一季國內生產毛額(GDP)成長5%,符合全年4.5%至5%的目標區間。 官方數據高於市場預期的4.8%的增幅,路透社調查的分析師也預測了這一增幅。荷蘭國際集團(ING)的經濟學家預測增幅為4.7%,澳新銀行(ANZ)的分析師則預測增幅為4.6%。 國家統計局將當前GDP成長歸功於國內生產和供應增速加快、市場需求改善、市場價格反彈以及就業穩定。 澳新銀行經濟學家楊瑞明(Raymond Yeung)、週曉霞(Vicky Xiao Zhou)和邢兆鵬在報告中認為,這標誌著通縮的結束。 楊、週和邢表示:“由於價格改善主要是成本推動而非需求拉動,風險已從通縮轉向滯脹。” 3月工業產值成長5.7%,低於1月和2月的6.3%增幅,但高於路透社調查分析師預測的5.5%增幅。不過,低於澳新銀行預測的5.8%。 同時,零售銷售額年增1.7%,低於預期,低於今年前兩個月的2.8%增幅,也低於路透社調查分析師預測的2.3%增幅和澳新銀行預測的2.9%增幅。 第一季平均失業率為5.3%,3月為5.4%。 荷蘭國際集團大中華區首席經濟學家宋琳表示,除非伊朗戰爭持續下去,否則中國能夠承受其影響。 宋先生表示:“中國有能力應對短期衝擊,但如果能源價格長期居高不下,則可能面臨更大壓力。未來幾個月,價格上漲可能會對進口成本和投入成本產生更大影響。” 受中東戰爭的影響,澳新銀行維持全年GDP成長預期為4.8%。
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