-- 由于中东冲突，国际货币基金组织（IMF）下调了2026年全球经济增长预期，并警告称，旷日持久的战争可能导致经济进一步放缓。 IMF周二表示，目前预计2026年全球实际国内生产总值（GDP）将增长3.1%，比1月份的预测值下调0.2个百分点。 在能源价格持续上涨的不利情景下，今年的经济增长将放缓至2.5%。在中东能源基础设施遭受进一步破坏的最坏情况下，这一数字将降至2%。 IMF在其最新的《世界经济展望》报告中指出，这场冲突对技术相关投资和宽松的金融环境等利好因素构成了“强大的反作用力”。 2027年全球GDP预期维持在3.2%不变。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）将2026年和2027年全球通胀基准预期分别从此前预测的3.8%和3.4%上调至4.4%和3.7%。 IMF预计，在不利情景下，今年通胀率将达到5.4%，如果能源供应中断持续到明年，通胀率将超过6%。 IMF表示：“下行风险主导着经济前景。冲突持续时间更长或范围更广、地缘政治分裂加剧、对人工智能驱动型生产力预期的重新评估，或贸易紧张局势再度升级，都可能显著削弱经济增长并动摇金融市场。” 自美以伊战争爆发以来，能源价格飙升。这场战争导致美国封锁了进出伊朗港口的海上交通。华盛顿和德黑兰上周同意暂时停火，但在周末于巴基斯坦举行的谈判中未能达成协议。 据媒体周二报道，美国总统特朗普表示，美国和伊朗可能在本周晚些时候恢复会谈，地点可能在巴基斯坦。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）表示：“在日益不确定的全球环境下，增强适应能力、维持可信的政策框架以及加强国际合作，对于应对当前冲击并为未来可能出现的动荡做好准备至关重要。”
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Crude Oil Prices Rise on Stalled U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
Crude oil prices rose on Monday as talks to end the war between the U.S. and Iran remain frozen and flows through the crucial Strait of Hormuz continue to be disrupted.Brent crude at last look gained 2.7% to US$108.17/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 2.4% to $96.63/barrel. The U.S. and Iran appear to still be far apart on issues including Iran's nuclear ambitions and the reopening of the strait, Reuters said in a Monday report."The diplomatic stand-off means that every day 10-13 million barrels of oil fail to get to the international market, worsening an already tight oil balance. Therefore, there is only one direction for oil prices to go," Reuters quoted PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga as saying.Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter oil price forecasts to $90/barrel for Brent and $83/barrel for WTI, citing reduced output from the Middle East, the report said.
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Commodities
Japan Resorts to More Coal, Nuclear During Energy Crisis Sidelines Renewables, Says IEEFA
Japan is leaning on higher nuclear output and ramping up use of coal in power generation as contingency measures in the face of the global energy crisis, but these measures are simultaneously smothering renewables, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said on Monday.Temporary increased use of coal was decided upon to reduce the need for now-scarce LNG while the restart of some nuclear power plants is also providing additional resilience to supply shocks which have hit Asian nations hardest.IEEFA said this risks displacing domestic renewable energy which can supply just as much energy security but lower cost and it could also increase curtailment and undermine investment in more renewables, up-ending progress on decarbonization.Most of Japan's coal imports, about 71%, come from Australia, making it a safe option that reduces exposure to disrupted Middle Eastern logistics, the IEEFA report noted.But a shortage of diesel for plant operations at J-Power's Matsuura 2 gigawatt coal-fired power station slashed its output by 50% while the JFE Steel Fukuyama facility was halted over a shortage of heavy oil, underscoring that coal is not fully detached from oil and gas's geopolitical risk.Japan typically imports 4 million tons of LNG that pass through the Strait of Hormuz each year, representing about 6% of its total imports.As of March, 15 of Japan's 36 nuclear reactors were operating, as that sector recovers from the multiple impacts of the Fukushima disaster.They generate a combined 37 GW. Bringing the remainder online could cut Japan's LNG needs by 12.5 million tonnes, IEEFA said. Regulatory changes in early April were introduced, facilitating more restarts.Backing up its argument that more coal and nuclear, both less flexible power sources, could increase curtailment of renewables, IEEFA said that each nuclear restart in Japan has been followed by a reduction in renewables generation.Curtailments in Japan have risen to 1.9 terrawatt hours by 2023, up from 100 GWh in 2018. In the first half of 2025, curtailments were faster still at 1.7 terrawatt hours for a six-month period.The fact that output from coal and nuclear can not rapidly be increased or slowed means it can be difficult to make room for renewable supply on the grid when its output rises.IEEFA said that limitations in Japan's grid infrastructure is an additional constraint that limits absorption of renewable power and led to a situation in March where it curtailed renewables while importing power from abroad.IEEFA suggests that the addition of battery storage to the grid could go some way to boosting its flexibility.Curtailment of renewables output has another inherent problem in that it leads to a less favourable economic case for later additions of zero carbon generation capacity, the report said, all the more so because Japan does not compensate renewables suppliers for curtailments, a practice common in Europe.Developers are adding battery storage as a work-around to that, securing contracts that remunerate battery-discharged electricity instead of directly generated then consumed electricity.The addition of batteries adds to project costs however at a time when investor interest has yet to turn into large scale deployment, with erosion of revenue support measures a further deterrent, IEEFA said.
Research
UOB Kay Hian Upgrades Hana Microelectronics to Buy from Hold; Price Target is THB38
Hana Microelectronics (BKK:HANA) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of 25.44 Thai baht, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)
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