-- 世界银行周二表示，受战争引发的供应冲击扰乱市场影响，能源价格今年可能上涨24%，布伦特原油价格将在2026年达到每桶86美元。 世界银行预计，受能源和化肥成本上涨的推动，2026年大宗商品整体价格将上涨16%。 袭击事件破坏了霍尔木兹海峡的基础设施和航运，导致全球石油市场每日约1000万桶的供应损失。霍尔木兹海峡承担着近35%的海运原油运输量。 世界银行表示，截至4月中旬，布伦特原油价格仍比年初水平高出50%以上。随着5月份供应中断情况缓解，航运在2026年底恢复正常，世界银行预计2026年油价将平均达到每桶86美元。 世界银行指出，能源成本上涨推高了食品价格和通货膨胀，增加了借贷成本，并给家庭和发展中经济体带来了更大的压力。 世界银行表示，数据中心、电动汽车和可再生能源的强劲需求可能将铝、铜和锡等基本金属的价格推高至历史新高。 报告称，发展中经济体的通胀率在2026年可能达到5.1%，高于去年的4.7%，比此前的预测高出1个百分点。 世界银行预计，发展中经济体的经济增长将在2026年放缓至3.6%，比1月份的预测下调了0.4个百分点。 世界银行表示，经济增长放缓可能会影响约70%的大宗商品进口国和超过60%的出口国，尤其是在直接受冲突影响的经济体中。 世界银行补充说，如果供应中断持续，基础设施损坏加剧，2026年布伦特原油均价可能高达每桶115美元。 报告指出，在这种情况下，发展中经济体的通胀率可能升至5.8%，达到2022年以来的最高水平，并加剧经济压力。 报告称，石油供应下降1%可能导致油价上涨11.5%，而油价上涨10%则可能推动天然气价格上涨7%，其影响将在大约一年后达到峰值。 世界银行集团首席经济学家英德米特·吉尔表示：“战争正以累积性的方式冲击全球经济：首先是能源价格上涨，然后是食品价格上涨，最终是通胀加剧，这将推高利率，使债务成本更高。” 他补充道：“最贫困的人群……将遭受最严重的打击。”他指出，这场危机揭示了一个“残酷的真相：战争是发展的逆向工程”。 世界银行副首席经济学家艾汉·科塞表示，各国政府必须避免提供广泛的财政支持，而应将援助重点放在弱势家庭上，以保护财政稳定。他还警告说，不要采取可能扭曲市场和削弱财政缓冲的措施。
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