-- 世界銀行週二表示，受戰爭引發的供應衝擊擾亂市場影響，能源價格今年可能上漲24%，布蘭特原油價格將在2026年達到每桶86美元。 世界銀行預計，受能源和化肥成本上漲的推動，2026年大宗商品整體價格將上漲16%。 這起攻擊事件破壞了霍爾木茲海峽的基礎設施和航運，導致全球石油市場每日約1000萬桶的供應損失。霍爾木茲海峽承擔近35%的海運原油運輸量。 世界銀行表示，截至4月中旬，布蘭特原油價格仍比年初水準高出50%以上。隨著5月供應中斷情況緩解，航運在2026年底恢復正常，世界銀行預計2026年油價將平均達到每桶86美元。 世界銀行指出，能源成本上漲推高了食品價格和通貨膨脹，增加了借貸成本，並給家庭和發展中經濟體帶來了更大的壓力。 世界銀行表示，資料中心、電動車和再生能源的強勁需求可能將鋁、銅和錫等基本金屬的價格推高至歷史新高。 報告稱，發展中經濟體的通膨率在2026年可能達到5.1%，高於去年的4.7%，比先前的預測高出1個百分點。 世界銀行預計，發展中經濟體的經濟成長將在2026年放緩至3.6%，比1月的預測下調了0.4個百分點。 世界銀行表示，經濟成長放緩可能影響約70%的大宗商品進口國和超過60%的出口國，尤其是直接受衝突影響的經濟體。 世界銀行補充說，如果供應中斷持續，基礎設施損壞加劇，2026年布蘭特原油均價可能高達每桶115美元。 報告指出，在這種情況下，發展中經濟體的通膨率可能升至5.8%，達到2022年以來的最高水平，並加劇經濟壓力。 報告稱，石油供應下降1%可能導致油價上漲11.5%，而油價上漲10%則可能推動天然氣價格上漲7%，其影響將在大約一年後達到高峰。 世界銀行集團首席經濟學家英德米特·吉爾表示：“戰爭正以累積性的方式衝擊全球經濟：首先是能源價格上漲，然後是食品價格上漲，最終是通脹加劇，這將推高利率，使債務成本更高。” 他補充說：「最貧窮的人群…將遭受最嚴重的打擊。」他指出，這場危機揭示了一個「殘酷的真相：戰爭是發展的逆向工程」。 世界銀行副首席經濟學家艾漢‧科塞表示，各國政府必須避免提供廣泛的財政支持，而應將援助重點放在弱勢家庭上，以保護財政穩定。他還警告說，不要採取可能扭曲市場和削弱財政緩衝的措施。
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