-- 根據牛津能源研究所分析師伊利亞·布舒耶夫（Ilia Bouchouev）週二在一份報告中指出，儘管自海灣戰爭爆發以來，全球現貨石油供應量已下降超過1000萬桶/日，但金融石油市場的衍生品交易量卻增長了約10億桶/日。 布舒耶夫在評論當前危機期間的市場動態時表示，隨著現貨原油市場波動加劇，選擇權、期貨和避險交易行為發生了顯著變化。 他指出，對沖基金有時會減少期貨淨敞口，隨著波動性上升，風險配置也在縮減。一些自主管理型基金也已離場觀望，理由是難以在當前環境下達成績效目標。 隨著對沖基金撤出，其他市場參與者扮演了更重要的角色。 石油生產商越來越多地透過掉期交易商出售長期期貨合約以鎖定高位價格，而圍繞美國戰略石油儲備釋放進行倉位佈局的市場參與者則在短期和長期合約之間進行價差交易。 同時，選擇權交易員也透過獲利了結早期持倉，加劇了近期的拋售壓力。 布舒耶夫表示，這些資金流動導致現貨油價與布蘭特原油和西德州中質原油等基準期貨價格之間的脫節日益加劇，衍生性商品交易活動對短期價格走勢的影響也越來越大。 他補充道，儘管一些金融交易員仍然保持結構性看漲，但在高度波動的市場環境下，表達方向性觀點變得更加困難，因為即使是微小的部位變動也可能對投資組合造成巨大影響。 然而，他警告稱，市場情緒可能迅速轉變。中東地緣政治緊張局勢的任何升級都可能引發新一輪看漲期權買盤和新一輪看漲建倉。 他也指出，儘管金融石油市場規模遠大於現貨原油市場，但相對於全球股票和債券市場而言仍然較小，因此宏觀金融環境的溢出效應仍有可能發生。 他補充說，成品油衍生品市場仍然存在結構性失衡，並且是當前價格扭曲的核心所在。
Related Articles
International
Ifo: German Export Morale Inches Up in April
German exporters turned slightly optimistic in April, while the overall sector moved neither forward nor backward due to geopolitical uncertainty, the ifo Institute said Monday.The ifo export expectations indicator increased to 0.1 point in April, from -0.7 points in March, as positive expectations roughly offset negative ones.Across the board, the export outlook for the automotive industry, electronics sector, and furniture manufacturers declined but remained generally positive. Expectations for shipments of food and beverages increased "significantly," while energy-intensive businesses forecasted lower exports.
$^SXXP
Mining & Metals
Big Banc Split to Complete Class A Share Split
Big Banc Split (BNK.TO) intends to complete a stock split of its Class A shares, citing strong performance of the shares, the fund said late on Friday.Class A shareholders of record at the close of business on May 1 will receive 20 additional Class A shares for every 100 Class A shares held.At completion of the share split, the Class A shares are expected to begin trading on an ex-split basis at the opening of trading on May 4.The preferred shares of the fund will not be affected and are expected to have downside protection from a decline in the value of the fund's portfolio of about 60%.Class A unitholders will continue to receive regular monthly non-cumulative cash distributions initially in the amount of $0.12 per Class A share, or $1.44 per year, following the Share Split. As a result, the total dollar amount of distributions to be paid to the holders of Class A shares is expected to increase by about 20%.The share split is subject to the approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange.
$BNK.TO
Japan