-- 独立系調査会社CFRAは、に対し、以下の調査レポートを提供しました。CFRAのアナリストは、以下のように見解をまとめています。12ヶ月目標株価18米ドルは据え置きです。これは、2027年のEBITDA予測にEV/EBITDA倍率5.0倍を適用した結果であり、VALEの過去3年間の平均EV/EBITDA倍率3.9倍を上回りますが、同業他社の平均6.5倍を下回っています。2026年の1株当たり利益（ADS）予測を0.49ブラジルレアル引き下げて10.28ブラジルレアルに、2027年の予測を0.45ブラジルレアル引き下げて10.52ブラジルレアルに修正します。VALEは2026年第1四半期に堅調な事業実績を示し、複数の資産で生産記録を更新し、鉄鉱石生産量は3%増加、銅とニッケル生産量は2桁増となりました。しかし、BRL高と原油価格の上昇によるコスト圧力により、C1コストは23.6ドル/トン（前年比+12%）に上昇し、経営陣は2026年のコストガイダンスの上限に向けてガイダンスを出した。Vale Base Metalsは、EBITDAが前年比で2倍以上となり、大きな価値を生み出している。純負債は178億ドルに拡大し、100億ドルから200億ドルの目標範囲の中間値に向かっているが、経営陣は現在の商品価格の下で、2026年まで多額の配当を分配し、自社株買いを継続することに自信を示した。
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Oil & Energy
Weekly Crude Prices Log 2nd Weekly Gain on OPEC+ Shake-up, Intensifying Hormuz Disruption
Global oil benchmarks posted a second straight week of gains as the energy market grapples with a tightening blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and the UAE's exit from OPEC in a historic fracture of the allianceWest Texas Intermediate closed Friday at $102.5/bbl, up from $94.88/bbl the previous week, while Brent futures settled higher at $109.2/bbl, up from $105.98/bbl a week earlier.Both crude benchmarks, including Brent and West Texas Intermediate, added 3.5% and 8%, respectively, on a weekly basis."Brent Crude remains elevated after hitting a wartime high on Thursday, with no sign that US and Iranian blockades of the Strait of Hormuz will be lifted anytime soon, prolonging and worsening the supply squeeze," Saxo Bank analysts said.The market has been characterized by extreme volatility this week, driven by a combination of unprecedented geopolitical supply shocks and a structural shift in the OPEC+ alliance.The week opened under immense pressure. Following nine weeks of conflict in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to significant commercial traffic.By Tuesday, exports through the Strait had plummeted to just 3.8 million barrels per day, a staggering drop from the pre-crisis levels of over 20 mb/d."An oil major has warned of imminent critical shortages for some nations. However, Thursday's sharp reversal underscores a market that is taking the stairs up but risks the elevator down on any sudden easing headline - making conditions exceptionally challenging for traders," Saxo Bank analysts added.On Wednesday, Brent crude rose for its seventh consecutive session, hitting levels not seen since the peak of the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022.The most significant market-moving event occurred mid-week with the surprise announcement that the UAE would officially exit OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance, effective May 1.This departure, the most significant since Qatar and Angola's exits, has raised serious questions about the future of quota discipline within the remaining OPEC members.The market is currently weighing the long-term bearish potential of more UAE supply against the short-term bullish reality of the Middle East supply blockade.On Friday, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued an alert warning of sanctions risks tied to Iran-linked payments for Hormuz transit, flagging potential exposure for global firms and financial institutions."Maritime industry participants involved with vessels calling at Iranian ports face significant sanctions risk under multiple sanctions authorities targeting Iran's shipping sector and ports, and OFAC will continue to aggressively target Iran's main revenue-generating sectors, in particular its petroleum and petrochemical sectors...," OFAC's alert said.Iran may seek payments through government-issued fiat currency, digital assets, offsets, swaps, or in-kind payments, including donations to entities such as the Iranian Red Crescent Society, OFAC added.US sanctions prohibit American individuals and US-controlled foreign entities from engaging in transactions with the Iranian government unless specifically authorized or exempt, OFAC said.Addressing reporters on Friday, Trump said oil and gasoline prices will tumble once the war ends."When the war ends, gasoline prices are going to tumble because there is so much right now on the scene already loaded into tankers, tankers that can't escape the Strait," Trump said, adding that gasoline prices are likely to fall to record lows.The US President described the US naval blockade as "unbelievable.""The blockade has been unbelievable, powerful, 100% it's been actually unbelievable. If we left right now, we'd have a great victory, but we're not doing that, negotiating with them," Trump said.Meanwhile, the market remains in backwardation, with spot prices higher than forward contracts, indicating tight prompt supply amid strong demand.A wide price disconnect emerged when futures hovered around $110/bbl, while physical crude in some regions touched nearly $150/bbl as refiners scrambled for available barrels.On the supply front, US crude stockpiles dropped by 6.2 million barrels to 459.5 mmbbls in the week ended April 24, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.Crude inventories are now about 1% above the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said.The US oil rig count rose by one from 407 the previous week to 408, in the week ending May 1, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compares with 472 oil rigs in operation a year earlier.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, dropped by four to 670 from 674 the previous week.Money managers in the WTI crude futures and options markets maintained their net long positions in the week ended April 28, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest Commitments of Traders report released on Friday.The data showed that money managers reported 219,650 long positions, down 827 from April 21, while short positions were up 7,073 to 84,149.For the coming week, analysts expect the market to remain highly sensitive to any headlines regarding Hormuz traffic or ceasefire negotiations.
$BKR
Research
Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Buy Rating On Shares Of Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We cut our price target by $14 to $77, 13.5x our 2026 EPS view, below CTSH's three-year average (~25x) as bookings momentum is more than offset by macroeconomic uncertainty and rising concerns about AI competition. We lift our 2026 EPS estimate by $0.06 to $5.72 and raise 2027's by $0.05 to $6.18. CTSH's 2026 organic sales growth forecast is sitting at ~3.8%, which we think will act as a growth floor for multiple years as large deals steadily ramp in the coming quarters. Bookings performance continues to strengthen, accelerating to 11% growth in Q1 on a TTM basis, with large deal TCV up 70% Y/Y. We think both results signal CTSH's above-market ability to capture demand in a tough environment. Still, we note it has been increasingly difficult to shake the bearish narrative of AI as an existential threat, and we reduce our multiple accordingly, as Q1 results offered mixed answers to this question, with bookings strength offset by a maintained sales guidance (5.25%) despite help from recent acquisitions.
$CTSH
Research
Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Buy Opinion On Shares Of Alliancebernstein Holding L.p.
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We trim our 12-month target price by $3 to $43. We value AB shares at 10.8x our 2027 EPS estimate of $4.00 (lowered by $0.20) and 11.8x our 2026 EPS estimate of $3.65 (trimmed by $0.15). This compares with the one-year average forward multiple of 11.4x and a disparate peer average of 16x. AB shares represent partnership interests and currently yield 8.8%. We keep our 2026 revenue growth forecast of 3% to 7%. Q1 adjusted revenues rose 3.9% to $871M, in line with our forecast. AB noted its institutional pipeline totaled $27.5B at the end of Q1. The pipeline is set to benefit from strategic initiatives, including the planned expansion into Asia insurance markets. AUM grew 6.9% to $838.6B. However, net outflows deteriorated to $7.1B (from $2.4B of inflows a year ago), masking $6.7B of inflows into fixed income, alternatives, and multi-asset investments. Driven by restructuring actions, GAAP operating margins expanded 430 bps to 26.1%. We see additional operating margin expansion in 2026.
$AB