-- ニュージーランド株は金曜日、木曜日のウォール街の上昇を受け、アジア株の多くが上昇したことを背景に上昇して取引を終えた。 S&P/NZX 50指数は1.05%（135.89ポイント）上昇し、13,039.20で引けた。 木曜日は、ナスダック総合指数が0.9%、S&P500指数が1%、ダウ平均株価が1.6%それぞれ上昇した。 ウォール街の上昇は、ハイテク大手アップルの決算発表が後押しとなった。iPhoneメーカーであるアップルは、第2四半期決算がウォール街の予想を上回り、iPhoneの売上高も予想を上回った。 国内ニュースでは、ニュージーランドの消費者信頼感指数が4月に約3年ぶりの低水準に落ち込んだ。ANZ銀行によると、原油価格の急落が経済見通し全般への懸念と小売業の下落リスクを高めたことが背景にあるという。 さらに、ニュージーランドの住宅価格は4月も3ヶ月連続の上昇を記録し、やや予想外の0.1%上昇となった。これは、年初の販売件数の低迷や中東情勢が世界経済に重くのしかかっているにもかかわらずのことだ、と不動産鑑定会社Cotalityは述べている。 また、ニュージーランド統計局のデータによると、季節調整済みのニュージーランドの新築住宅建設許可件数は、3月に前月の3,412件から1.3%減の3,370件となった。 一方、realstate.co.nzのデータによると、ニュージーランドの4月の新規物件登録件数は前年同月比7.3%増の9,139件となった。 企業ニュースでは、コンタクト・エナジー（ASX:CEN、NZE:CEN）が、ロブ・マクドナルド会長が次回の年次株主総会終了後に退任すると発表した。 KMD Brands（ASX:KMD、NZE:KMD）は、非常勤取締役のフィリップ・ボウマン氏を会長に任命した。就任は金曜日付で、デビッド・カーク氏の後任となる。
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Oil & Energy
EMEA Oil Update: Brent Surges as Strait of Hormuz Blockade Drags On
Global energy markets remain on edge as Brent crude futures climbed on Friday fueled by hardening rhetoric from both Tehran and Washington.The Brent futures contract gained 1.4% to $111.95 per barrel. Murban closed at $109.92 on April 30 and was not trading as of the time of publishing this oil price update."Brent Crude remains elevated after hitting a wartime high on Thursday, with no sign that US and Iranian blockades of the Strait of Hormuz will be lifted anytime soon, prolonging and worsening the supply squeeze," Saxo Bank analysts said.As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz enters its third month, the prospect of a swift resolution has dimmed, with Iran's new Supreme Leader and the US administration both doubling down on their respective positions.Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, signaled a hardline shift in Tehran's policy.Khamenei reportedly vowed that the Islamic Republic would not abandon its nuclear or missile technologies, explicitly stating that Iran intends to maintain its grip on the Strait of Hormuz.Simultaneously, US President Trump has maintained a firm stance on the blockade of Iranian ports, despite the resulting upward pressure on global oil prices.Meanwhile, the wait-and-see period for the paper markets may be ending."The gap between the paper and physical markets is narrowing as tightness begins to materialise for the first time since the conflict began," ANZ analysts said.
Commodities
Australia Should Push Through Higher Export Taxes on Gas Despite Japanese Lobbying, IEEFA Says
Australia's plans to raise export taxes on gas have prompted lobbying against this from Japan, one of its key buyers, but the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis argued on Thursday that Australia should stand firm on the issue.The issue is a pressing one given that Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will make an official visit to the country in the coming days, with a high likelihood that gas policy will form part of the agenda.IEEFA points out that Japan's interest in preventing an export tax rise by Australia is more related to commercial interests, which the institute argues should take second place to supply security for all parties in the midst of an energy crisis.In the context of gas shortages ahead in Australia's domestic market, all the more so if exports continue or are increased, IEEFA says that Australia's priority should be defence of its own consumers and not the commercial interests of other parties."Lobbying by the Japanese government and companies may reflect energy security concerns, at least in part, but it is also clearly motivated by commercial opportunities," the IEEFA report said."In recent years Japanese companies have invested in LNG import and gas infrastructure across South and South-East Asia as part of government plans to increase LNG demand across the region, with LNG sales by Japanese companies increasing over recent years," it said.It noted that while Australian policy changes could affect Japan's commercial interests, they posed no threat to its security of energy supply.Japanese liquefied natural gas resales in 2024 were 44 million metric tons, about 1.7 times the size of Australian imports that year, according to the Japanese Organisation for Metals and Energy Security.Japan sold an estimated 598-756 petajoules of Australian LNG to other markets in 2025."[A]mid emerging supply security concerns, it is crucial that Australian policy-makers recognise the commercial motivations underpinning Japan's lobbying," the report concluded."Australia can implement a domestic gas policy that ensures security of supply at home without impacting on Japan's energy security. The only question is whether policymakers will have the courage to protect domestic gas users."
Asia
Indian Finance Companies Have Ample Buffers Against Oil Shock, S&P Says
S&P Global Ratings expects its rated Indian finance companies (finks) to have ample capital and earnings cushion to mitigate the effects of the oil shock, according to a recent release.Indian finches' regulatory capital adequacy would endure even a doubling of nonperforming loans, according to S&P credit analyst Greta Chugh.However, two companies would observe significant declines and face downgrades on S&P's risk-adjusted capital basis, the analyst said.Earnings would also suffer under sharply declining asset quality, Chugh said.The rating agency's risk assessment for the sector or some companies could erode if asset quality risks are structural rather than a one-off shock.S&P does not forecast a prolonged oil shock or a major constraint on India's economic growth, but a downward scenario of a lingering shock would hit growth and employment as well as squeeze fincos' credit costs and profitability.Household repayment capacity could gradually decline amid higher inflation and less disposable income, S&P said.Stress will likely first hit small-ticket unsecured segments, commercial vehicle loans, and Microfinance, with gradual spillover effects on secured products such as vehicle loans and affordable housing, Chugh said.
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