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FINWIRES

スコシアバンクは、米イラン停戦後、商品市場を除いて市場は上昇したと述べている。

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-- スコシアバンクによると、米国とイランが2週間の停戦に合意したことを受け、水曜日の金融市場は商品市場を除いて全て上昇している。 同行は、ポジションカバーが価格変動を増幅させ、やや過剰反応を引き起こしている可能性があると指摘した。 原油価格は変動が激しいものの、2桁のパーセンテージで急落している。ただし、先物価格は2026年から2027年にかけて、年初のスポット価格よりも持続的に高い水準で推移していると、同行は述べている。 スコシアバンクは、これは明らかに、a) 不確実な交渉の中で停戦が脆弱である可能性、b) 地政学的リスクプレミアムとインフラへの長期的なダメージに対する市場の懸念を示していると指摘した。 株式市場は概ね上昇しており、北米先物は約2~3%、欧州株は3~5%、アジア太平洋地域の主要株価指数は3~7%上昇している。スコシアバンクによると、国債利回りは概ね低下傾向にあり、ユーロ圏国債は満期・国を問わず20~30ベーシスポイント(bps)低下し、他国債を大きく引き離している。一方、米国債はわずか5~7bps上昇、カナダ国債は短期債で10bps上昇し、ブルスティープナー(強気相場の上昇)となっている。 同行によると、米ドル(USD)は概ね下落しているが、カナダドル(CADまたはルーニー)は原油価格の下落により、他の通貨ペアに比べてやや低迷している。

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