-- スコシアバンクの見解では、結論として「歳入の減少と歳出の増加により、プリンスエドワードアイランド州(PEI)は、財政節約策や新たな生活費負担軽減策の策定といった努力にもかかわらず、以前の予測よりも大きな赤字と債務増加のペースを予測せざるを得なくなっている」とのことです。 スコシアバンクは前日のレポートで、結論として、今後の赤字削減は、PEI州における歳出見直しによる年間2億ドルの節約計画の達成と、医療費増加の抑制計画の実現に大きく左右されると述べています。 PEI州の2026年度予算の主な内容として、スコシアバンクは、2026年度の赤字が4億5000万ドル(名目国内総生産(NGDP)の4%)と推定され、中間更新時の3億6700万ドル(NGDPの3.2%)から増加し、2027年度の4億1000万ドル(3.5%)から2029年度には3億3800万ドル(2.6%)に減少すると予測されていることを指摘しました。経済予測によると、実質GDP成長率は今年と2027年に2%と見込まれており、2025年の予測値2.4%から下方修正されています。 また、スコシアバンクは、長期にわたる高水準の財政赤字が、今後の見通しにおいて州の純債務をさらに押し上げると指摘しています。純債務は、2026年度の37億7000万ドル(GDP比33.2%)から、2027年度には45億ドル(38.1%)、2028年度には48億9000万ドル(39.8%)へと増加し、2029年度には51億3000万ドル(39.9%)に達すると予測されています。 スコシアバンクは、巨額の財政赤字と資本増強計画により、州の資金需要は依然として高い水準にあると指摘しています。 2027会計年度の総資金需要は、2026会計年度の10億5,000万ドルから9億1,840万ドルに減少すると見込まれています。これは、連結赤字(4億1,000万ドル)、固定資産取得費(4億8,650万ドル)、および国営企業向け純借入額(1億510万ドル)によるもので、後者は償却費(1億6,620万ドル)によって一部相殺されます。 これらの借入需要は、長期借入9億ドルと短期借入および運転資金1,840万ドルによって賄われる予定です。
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