-- スイス株式市場指数は水曜日もプラス圏を維持し、中東戦争の終結への期待感の高まりを受け、1.77%高で取引を終えた。 複数のメディア(Axiosやロイターなど)は情報筋の話として、米国とイランが戦争終結に向けた14項目からなる1ページの覚書で合意に近づいていると報じた。一方、ドナルド・トランプ米大統領はTruth Socialへの投稿で、イランが「合意内容を実行に移せば」戦争と封鎖は終結すると述べ、合意に至らなければ爆撃は「以前よりもはるかに高いレベルと強度で」再開されると警告した。 国内では、スイスの民間部門は4月に改善を見せ、KOF景況感指数は前月の16.6から18.3に上昇した。 「製造業の景況感指数は3月の落ち込みから完全に回復した。プロジェクトエンジニアリング部門ではさらに急激に上昇しており、卸売業では緩やかな上昇が見られる。その他のサービス業と小売業も緩やかな回復を示している」と、KOFスイス経済研究所は述べている。「しかしながら、今後6ヶ月間の景況感は概して低調になりつつあり、特にホスピタリティ部門、卸売業、製造業においてその傾向が顕著である。」 企業別に見ると、ロジクール・インターナショナル(LOGN.SW)の2026年度の純利益は前年同期比で増加し、7億1120万ドル(前年同期は6億3150万ドル)となった。純売上高も48億4000万ドル(前年同期は45億5000万ドル)に増加した。スイスのコンピューター周辺機器・ソフトウェア企業である同社の株価は、取引終了時点で0.40%下落した。 スイスの眼科医療製品グループ、アルコン(ALC.SW)の株価も、第1四半期の純利益が前年同期比で3億5000万ドルから1億8900万ドルに急減したことを受け、終値で10.96%下落した。営業利益は、効率化策に伴う費用、無形資産の減損損失、および関税増の影響で38%減の2億9200万ドルとなった。一方、純売上高は増加した。 「アルコンはターゲット市場で圧倒的な地位を築いているものの、投資判断は利益率の拡大にかかっており、これには実行リスクが伴う。眼科市場の成長は、ある程度安定しているとはいえ、依然として中程度の1桁台の成長率にとどまっている。そのため、特に2026年1月にSTAAR Surgicalの買収計画が中止されたことを考慮すると、アルコンは今後数四半期/数年にわたり、M&Aによる成長を追求すると予想される」と、AlphaValue/Baader Europeのアナリストはレポートで述べている。 「現在、アルコン株には12%の上昇余地があるものの、大きな利益を得るためには、株価がさらに調整されるまで待つ方が良いかもしれない。」
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Update: WTI Oil Plunges Following Reports the U.S. and Iran May Be Close to a Peace Deal
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil plunged 7% on Wednesday following reports the United States and Iran are close to an agreement to end their war, offering the possibility the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$7.19 to settle at US$95.08 per barrel after touching US$88.66 in Asian trade, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$9.13 to US$100.74.The drop came as Axios overnight reported the two countries were close to a negotiated deal to end hostilities, which was later confirmed by U.S. President Trump. In a social media post, Trump said the war "will be at an end" and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen to traffic if Iran agrees to a U.S. peace proposal, while threatening to resume bombing if its terms are rejected.Citing Iran's state media, Reuters reported Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is claiming the Strait, the chokepoint for exports from Persian Gulf nations supplying 20% of daily oil demand, could reopen if a deal is reached.Oil prices have climbed by more than half since Iran closed the Strait when the war began on Feb. 28, trapping exports of oil, LNG, fertilizers and other commodities in the Persian Gulf. However an end to the war is unlikely to see a quick return to normal. Iranian attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in neighboring countries and restarting production from shut-in oilfields will limit a quick return to pre-war operating levels."If Hormuz were to be reopened, it would take an additional seven months at minimum to fully restore upstream production, assuming no permanent damage and supply chains operate smoothly. A recovery could take longer if there is damage to ports or other transport and loading infrastructure," S&P Global Energy noted.The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported another drop in U.S. commercial oil inventories, saying stocks fell by 2.3-million barrels last week, under the consensus estimate for a drop of 3.3-million barrels among analysts polled by Reuters.
US Oil Update: Futures Slide With Prospects of US-Iran Deal in Focus
Crude oil futures retreated in midday trading on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session, as signs of progress toward a potential US-Iran agreement eased concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 6.93% to $95.17 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 7.55% to $101.59/bbl.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said tighter US crude inventories and ongoing Middle East supply risks continue to support prices despite improving sentiment around diplomacy.US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels to 457.2 mmbbls in the week ended May 1, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.The agency said crude oil input to refineries dropped by 42,000 barrels per day from the previous week to average about 16 mmb/d in the week ending May 1. Crude oil production dropped by 13,000 b/d to 13.6 mmb/d.Iran is reviewing a new US proposal, and it will convey its response soon through Pakistan, according to media reports. On Wednesday, President Trump said "Great Progress" has been made on a final agreement to end the war with Iran, without giving more details.Trump said the US would pause its efforts to escort ships through the Hormuz Strait, as White House officials reportedly believe Washington is nearing a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the conflict.ING strategists said a deal that normalizes oil flows through Hormuz is crucial, with about 13 million b/d of disrupted supply largely offset by declining inventory.However, Rystad Energy strategists said even if an agreement is reached, the impact on actual oil flows would be slower and more conditional than current price action suggests."A deal announcement would move futures further immediately, in fact, even the potential of a deal is already triggering a decline in oil prices. However, the physical market does not run on political timelines," said Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, Rystad's chief oil analyst.On the supply front, Venezuelan crude exports climbed to a seven-month high of just over 1.05 million barrels per day in April, more than double from January levels, as a revamped licensing framework and easing trade restrictions supported a broader recovery in flows.Kpler said the rebound was driven by stronger demand from traditional buyers, with the US importing about 400,000 b/d and India taking 384,000 b/d.