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カナディアン・ナチュラル・リソーシズ、第1四半期決算発表後もTPHの「ホールド」を維持。目標株価は70.00カナダドル。

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-- チューダー・ピッカリング・ホルトは木曜日、カナダ最大の石油生産会社であるカナディアン・ナチュラル・リソーシズ（CNQ.TO、CNQ）の第1四半期決算発表を受け、同社の株価について「ホールド」の投資判断を維持し、目標株価を70.00カナダドルとした。 「2025年末の純負債水準を考慮すると概ね予想通りではあるものの、全体的な更新のハイライトには、第1四半期のキャッシュフローが約4%上回ったことに加えて、資本返還の正式なステップアップが含まれています。第1四半期の結果では、主要な指標として、AFFOが43.7億カナダドル、TPHe/Streetのコンセンサスが41.9億カナダドル/42.6億カナダドル（1株当たり2.09カナダドル、TPHe/Streetは2.01カナダドル/2.01カナダドル）となり、当社のモデルとの差は、実現と費用が生産を相殺する以上に大きくなったことによるものです。1,643百万バレル相当日（mboepd）は、TPHe/Streetの1,657/1,651をわずかに下回りましたが、これは主にオイルサンドによるもので、原位置生産量が275百万バレル/日（TPHe/Streetは279/276）、OSMが588百万バレル/日（TPHe/Streetは279/276）となっています。」 594/595だが、OSMにおける4月の生産量630mbopdは第2四半期（TPHe/Street 587/587）にとって好材料となる。バランスシートと資本還元に関して、純負債は現在160億カナダドルを十分に下回っており、CNQはフリーキャッシュフローの75%を株主に還元する計画を立てている。これは既に効果を発揮し始めており、4月の自社株買いは既に約3億カナダドルに達し、第1四半期全体の自社株買い活動（15億カナダドルの資本還元、内訳は配当金12億カナダドルと自社株買い3億カナダドル）に匹敵する。TPHeの2027年下半期の見通しは、純負債が130億カナダドル未満で最終的に100%に引き上げられるという見通しに変更はない」とアナリストのジェフリー・ランブジョンは記している。 （は、北米、アジア、ヨーロッパの主要銀行および調査会社による株式、商品、経済に関する調査レポートを配信しています。調査レポート提供者の方は、こちらからお問い合わせください：https://www..com/contact-us）

Price: $59.80, Change: $-2.46, Percent Change: -3.95%

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