-- カナダ銀行は水曜日、今年の経済成長率予測を1.2%に若干上方修正し、2027年には1.6%に上昇すると発表しました。これは、輸出と企業投資が徐々に回復するにつれて、潜在生産成長率をわずかに上回る水準です。 カナダ銀行は四半期金融政策報告書（MPR）の中で、2028年の国内総生産（GDP）成長率を1.7%と予測しています。 1月に発表された前回のMPRでは、今年のGDP成長率は1.1%と予測されていましたが、2028年の予測は示されていませんでした。 カナダ銀行は、カナダの経済成長は1月のMPRの見通しと概ね一致していると付け加えました。個人消費と政府支出がGDPを支えている一方、米国の関税とそれに伴う貿易の不確実性が輸出と投資の重荷となっています。インフレ率は、原油価格ショックが発生する前は予想通り減速していました。 カナダ銀行によると、中東での戦争は既に経済に影響を与えています。直接的な影響としてはガソリン価格の上昇があり、3月の消費者物価指数は前年同月比2.4%上昇した。 今後の見通しは、米国の関税が据え置かれ、原油価格が第2四半期の1バレル90ドルから2027年半ばまでに75ドルまで徐々に下落するという主要な前提条件に大きく左右される。 水曜日に発表されたMPR（政策準備報告書）によると、世界の原油価格が予想通りに下落することを前提とすれば、インフレ率は4月に約3%でピークに達し、その後2027年初頭には目標の2%に戻ると予想される。2027年と2028年には、景気の停滞が物価上昇を抑制し、コスト上昇をほぼ相殺するため、インフレ率は目標の2%付近にとどまると見込まれる。
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