FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

オーストラリアの消費者信頼感指数、戦争見通しを受けて4月に低下

-- オーストラリアの消費者信頼感指数は3月に急落し、新型コロナウイルス感染症流行以降で最大の月間低下幅を記録し、2023年以来の低水準となったと、ウェストパック・メルボルン研究所が火曜日に発表した。 同研究所によると、ウェストパック・メルボルン研究所の消費者信頼感指数は、燃料費の高騰と金利上昇を背景に、3月の91.6から4月には80.1に低下した。 同研究所は、「4月には、米イスラエルによるイラン戦争後の燃料価格の高騰と、オーストラリア準備銀行による25ベーシスポイントの利上げが、再び家計に大きな圧力をかけている」と指摘した。 オーストラリアの消費者信頼感指数は、100を上回ると楽観的な見方を示し、100を下回ると悲観的な見方を示す。 同研究所の月次調査によると、4月にはオーストラリア人の失業への不安が約6年ぶりの高水準に達し、住宅価格の見通しについても消費者の楽観度は大幅に低下した。 2022年以降概ね上昇傾向にあったオーストラリアの消費者信頼感指数は、再び過去最低水準に近づいている。「ただし、(新型コロナウイルス感染症)パンデミック発生時や1980年代・90年代初頭の景気後退期に見られた極端な水準よりは高い」と、ウェストパック・メルボルン研究所は述べている。 4月の「大型家庭用品購入時期」を示すサブ指数は、3月の98から83.3に低下し、消費者信頼感の低下を示すもう一つの兆候となった。 4月の家計見通しも悪化した。「経済と家計の短期的な見通しも急激に悪化しており、消費者は改善の見込みがほとんどなく、さらなる困難に備えていることを示唆している」と、同研究所は報告している。 ウェストパック・メルボルン研究所の消費者信頼感調査は、毎月約1,200世帯のオーストラリアの成人消費者を対象に実施されている。

Related Articles

Asia

Suncorp Group Sees Improved Earnings Stability Under New Reinsurance Structure, Jefferies Says

Suncorp Group (ASX:SUN) will benefit from reduced earnings volatility and improved capital efficiency following its new five-year aggregate reinsurance program, though growth forecasts have been modestly revised lower, Jefferies said in an April 24 note.Jefferies noted that the new reinsurance program, starting June 30, provides AU$800 million in annual catastrophe protection and up to AU$2.4 billion over five years, capping natural hazard costs at budgeted levels in about 90% of scenarios and reducing earnings volatility from extreme weather.The equity research firm said that the company's revised framework raises its fiscal 2027 natural hazard allowance to AU$1.85 billion and ties it to exposure growth following a AU$453 million first-half 2026 overrun, with the impact broadly neutral.The research firm stated that, despite differing economics from its peers, the company's underlying insurance trading ratio outlook remains steady at 10% to 12% at the top end of its range, with reported earnings expected to better reflect underlying performance as catastrophe volatility eases.The research firm slightly revised its forecasts, cutting gross written premium growth to about 3% from 3.8% due to foreign exchange effects in New Zealand and updating investment income and valuation assumptions, with earnings estimates adjusted within a range of negative 3% to 1% over the forecast period.Jefferies maintained a hold rating on Suncorp Group and raised the price target to AU$17.70 from AU$16.50.

$ASX:SUN
Asia

Fortescue Faces Pressure From Iron Bridge Weakness, Green Energy Shift, Jefferies Says

Fortescue (ASX:FMG) reported softer quarterly performance alongside ongoing challenges at Iron Bridge and increased spending on non-core green energy projects, raising concerns over returns and valuation, Jefferies said in an April 24 note.The company reported a softer quarter due to seasonal and weather impacts, with solid performance from its Pilbara hematite operations offset by ongoing underperformance at the Iron Bridge magnetite project, which continues to face throughput and margin challenges and may struggle to justify its value.Jefferies noted that the company's $680 million investment in green energy capacity for third-party customers, such as industrial users and data centers, represents a strategic shift, but views it as non-core capital allocation that may justify a higher discount rate for its mining business until clearer returns emerge.The equity research firm said that the company's Pilbara system is nearing port capacity constraints, a "good problem" that may allow higher-margin hematite production to displace costlier Iron Bridge volumes, as the company reviews its portfolio, trims Iron Bridge output, and keeps overall shipment guidance broadly unchanged.The research firm added that the company remains financially solid with $4.2 billion in cash despite dividends and capital expenditure outflows and is expected to return to a net cash position longer term, but highlighted Iron Bridge uncertainty and higher green energy spending as risks, including a potential write-down, supporting a cautious outlook.Jefferies maintained an underperform rating on Fortescue and reduced the price target to AU$16.50 from AU$17.50.

$ASX:FMG
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Hold Opinion On Shares Of Otis Worldwide Corporation

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We cut our 12-month target to $90 from $100 following Q1 earnings, valuing OTIS shares at 19.6x our 2027 EPS outlook of $4.58 (down from $4.70; 2026 EPS view updated to $4.18 from $4.25), a modest discount to industrial machinery peers' and OTIS's five-year forward multiple average given unclear timing of ongoing margin headwinds. Service margins were disappointing in Q1 (contracting 160 bps to 23%) amid higher labor and material costs that came in above pricing. Weakness in China has yet to stabilize, though as noted in the past, this represents a shrinking area of OTIS's portfolio and will have a more limited effect going forward. Overall, the latest quarter was more of the same (China weakness/New Equipment decline), though with the added concern of margin quality being pressured within Service - the core profit driver for OTIS overall. While efforts to shore up profitability are underway, we see timing of recovery being uncertain.

$OTIS