-- 水曜日の正午過ぎ、米国株式市場は上昇し、S&P500種指数とナスダック総合指数は史上最高値を更新した。これは、イランとの和平合意への期待の高まりと、四半期決算発表によるハイテク株の株価上昇が背景にある。 ナスダック総合指数は1.5%高の25,704.2で取引を終え、日中一時25,708.84の史上最高値をつけた。S&P500種指数は1.2%高の7,346.5で取引を終え、日中序盤には7,348.35の史上最高値を記録した。ダウ工業株30種平均は1.2%高の49,892.6となった。 米メディア「アクシオス」は、米当局者2人とこの問題について説明を受けた他の情報筋2人の話として、ホワイトハウスはイランとの合意(戦争終結とより詳細な核交渉の枠組みを定める1ページの覚書)が間近に迫っているとの見方を示した。事情に詳しい関係者がブルームバーグに語ったところによると、イランがワシントンの覚書を受け入れれば、ホルムズ海峡の段階的な再開とイラン港湾に対する米国の封鎖解除につながるという。 WTI原油先物価格は6.9%下落し1バレル=95.34ドル、ブレント原油先物価格は7.7%下落し1バレル=102.20ドルとなった。 企業ニュースでは、半導体メーカーのアドバンスト・マイクロ・デバイセズ(AMD)の株価が17%急騰し、S&P500種株価指数とナスダック総合指数の上昇率上位銘柄となった。同社は前夜、予想を上回る第1四半期決算を発表し、第2四半期の売上高見通しも好調だった。
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Update: WTI Oil Plunges Following Reports the U.S. and Iran May Be Close to a Peace Deal
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil plunged 7% on Wednesday following reports the United States and Iran are close to an agreement to end their war, offering the possibility the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$7.19 to settle at US$95.08 per barrel after touching US$88.66 in Asian trade, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$9.13 to US$100.74.The drop came as Axios overnight reported the two countries were close to a negotiated deal to end hostilities, which was later confirmed by U.S. President Trump. In a social media post, Trump said the war "will be at an end" and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen to traffic if Iran agrees to a U.S. peace proposal, while threatening to resume bombing if its terms are rejected.Citing Iran's state media, Reuters reported Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is claiming the Strait, the chokepoint for exports from Persian Gulf nations supplying 20% of daily oil demand, could reopen if a deal is reached.Oil prices have climbed by more than half since Iran closed the Strait when the war began on Feb. 28, trapping exports of oil, LNG, fertilizers and other commodities in the Persian Gulf. However an end to the war is unlikely to see a quick return to normal. Iranian attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in neighboring countries and restarting production from shut-in oilfields will limit a quick return to pre-war operating levels."If Hormuz were to be reopened, it would take an additional seven months at minimum to fully restore upstream production, assuming no permanent damage and supply chains operate smoothly. A recovery could take longer if there is damage to ports or other transport and loading infrastructure," S&P Global Energy noted.The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported another drop in U.S. commercial oil inventories, saying stocks fell by 2.3-million barrels last week, under the consensus estimate for a drop of 3.3-million barrels among analysts polled by Reuters.
US Oil Update: Futures Slide With Prospects of US-Iran Deal in Focus
Crude oil futures retreated in midday trading on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session, as signs of progress toward a potential US-Iran agreement eased concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 6.93% to $95.17 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 7.55% to $101.59/bbl.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said tighter US crude inventories and ongoing Middle East supply risks continue to support prices despite improving sentiment around diplomacy.US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels to 457.2 mmbbls in the week ended May 1, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.The agency said crude oil input to refineries dropped by 42,000 barrels per day from the previous week to average about 16 mmb/d in the week ending May 1. Crude oil production dropped by 13,000 b/d to 13.6 mmb/d.Iran is reviewing a new US proposal, and it will convey its response soon through Pakistan, according to media reports. On Wednesday, President Trump said "Great Progress" has been made on a final agreement to end the war with Iran, without giving more details.Trump said the US would pause its efforts to escort ships through the Hormuz Strait, as White House officials reportedly believe Washington is nearing a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the conflict.ING strategists said a deal that normalizes oil flows through Hormuz is crucial, with about 13 million b/d of disrupted supply largely offset by declining inventory.However, Rystad Energy strategists said even if an agreement is reached, the impact on actual oil flows would be slower and more conditional than current price action suggests."A deal announcement would move futures further immediately, in fact, even the potential of a deal is already triggering a decline in oil prices. However, the physical market does not run on political timelines," said Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, Rystad's chief oil analyst.On the supply front, Venezuelan crude exports climbed to a seven-month high of just over 1.05 million barrels per day in April, more than double from January levels, as a revamped licensing framework and easing trade restrictions supported a broader recovery in flows.Kpler said the rebound was driven by stronger demand from traditional buyers, with the US importing about 400,000 b/d and India taking 384,000 b/d.