-- 水曜日の正午過ぎ、米国株式市場は上昇し、S&P500種指数とナスダック総合指数は史上最高値を更新した。イランの和平合意が近づき、アドバンスト・マイクロ・デバイセズ(AMD)の第1四半期決算発表が半導体株の上昇を促したことが背景にある。 ナスダック総合指数は1.6%高の25,737.8で取引を終え、日中一時25,741.14の史上最高値をつけた。S&P500種指数は1.2%高の7,342.9で取引を終え、日中序盤には7,348.35の史上最高値を記録した。ダウ工業株30種平均は1.1%高の49,818.9となった。 通信サービス、工業、素材、テクノロジーセクターが上昇を牽引した一方、エネルギーセクターは正午の取引で最も大きく下落した。 米大統領府は、イランとの戦争を終結させ、テヘランの核開発計画に関するより詳細な交渉の枠組みを定めるための1ページの覚書(MOU)で合意に近づいていると、米当局者2人とこの問題について説明を受けた他の情報筋2人の話として、アクシオスが報じた。まだ最終決定ではないものの、情報筋によると、これは戦争開始以来、両国が合意に最も近づいたケースだという。 この覚書をイランが受け入れれば、ホルムズ海峡の段階的な再開と、イランの港湾に対する米国の封鎖解除につながると、事情に詳しい人物がブルームバーグに語った。一方、ドナルド・トランプ大統領は、合意に至らなければ「爆撃が再開される」とイランに警告したと、複数のメディアが報じている。 WTI原油先物価格は6.8%下落して1バレル95.47ドル、ブレント原油先物価格は7.9%下落して1バレル101.97ドルとなった。 米国債利回りは低下し、10年債利回りは6.2ベーシスポイント低下して4.35%となり、約1ヶ月ぶりの高値からさらに下落した。2年債利回りも6.9ベーシスポイント低下して3.87%となった。 貴金属市場では、金先物価格が2.8%上昇して1オンスあたり4,697.9ドル、銀先物価格が5.4%上昇して1オンスあたり77.59ドルとなった。 企業ニュースでは、半導体メーカーのAMD(アドバンスト・マイクロ・デバイセズ)の株価が約17%急騰し、S&P500種株価指数とナスダック総合指数の上昇率上位銘柄となった。同社は前日、予想を上回る第1四半期決算を発表し、第2四半期の売上高見通しも好調だった。 Finvizがまとめたデータによると、時価総額2,000億ドル以上の企業を対象としたカテゴリーで、パフォーマンス上位10社のうち半数以上が半導体業界に属していた。 AMDの業績は、人工知能関連製品・サービスへの需要加速に対する信頼感の高まりを裏付けるものとなった。 ウォルト・ディズニー(DIS)の第2四半期決算は、全事業部門で増収を記録し、市場予想を上回った。メディア・エンターテインメント大手である同社は、下半期の成長加速への期待を改めて表明した。株価は6.7%上昇し、ダウ平均株価構成銘柄の中で最大の上げ幅となった。 経済ニュースでは、ADPが水曜日に発表したデータによると、4月の米民間部門の雇用者数は1年以上ぶりの高水準で増加した。これは、週後半に発表される非農業部門雇用統計に先立つものだ。民間部門の雇用者数は10万9000人増加し、2025年1月以来の最高水準となった。ブルームバーグがまとめた調査では、市場予想は12万人だった。3月の雇用者数は6万2000人から6万1000人に下方修正された。
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Advanced Micro Devices Set to Command Half of Growing Server CPU Market, BofA Says
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is expected to capture about half of the total addressable market for server central processing units, which the company expects will exceed $120 billion by 2030, BofA Securities said in a note emailed Wednesday.The chip maker's updated forecast for server CPU TAM is double its previous estimate amid rising agentic artificial intelligence demand, according to the brokerage.The server CPU market is now expected to grow more than 35% annually, reaching over $120 billion by 2030, AMD Chief Executive Lisa Su said late Tuesday during an earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript.The company previously expected market growth of 18% annually over the next three to five years.BofA expects AMD to capture a roughly 50% share of the server CPU market, with the remaining half split between rivals Intel (INTC) and Arm (ARM)."Rising CPU TAM is good for all CPU vendors, but we expect AMD to maintain/expand share on (the) back of broad portfolio, rising enterprise focus, continued cloud leadership and consistent roadmap execution," BofA analyst Vivek Arya wrote. "Separately, we expect AMD to potentially announce other large customers for GPUs for (2027) and beyond."Shares of AMD surged 18% in Wednesday afternoon trade.The company reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter results late Tuesday, as demand for AI infrastructure pushed data center revenue higher year over year."Inferencing and agentic AI are increasing the need for server CPU compute as these workloads require additional CPU processing for orchestration, data movement, and parallel execution in addition to serving as the head nodes for GPUs and accelerators," Su told analysts during the earnings call. "As a result, we are seeing both stronger near-term demand and deeper engagement with customers on long-term capacity planning."AMD currently represents about 6% of the AI TAM, and that figure is expected to grow toward double digits by 2030, Arya said.Still, AMD remains "exposed to uncertain share allocation between numerous OpenAI suppliers" including Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO) and Cerebras Systems, he said.Following AMD's first-quarter results, BofA raised the company's 2026 and 2027 pro-forma earnings per share estimate by 9% each to $7.28 and $11.80. The brokerage is projecting AMD's 2030 EPS potential at more than $27, above management's $20-plus target.BofA reiterated AMD's buy rating and lifted the price target to $450 from $310.Price: $417.82, Change: $+62.56, Percent Change: +17.61%
OPEC Production Slumps to 36-Year Low on Iran Conflict Impact, Bloomberg Survey Says
OPEC crude production slumped to its lowest level in 36 years last month as an ongoing Iran conflict choked off Persian Gulf exports and forced a wave of supply shut-ins, a Bloomberg survey showed on Wednesday.Output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell by 420,000 barrels per day in April to an average of 20.55 million b/d. The total marks the group's lowest production ceiling since 1990, led by deepening supply disruptions in Kuwait and Iran.Last week, the producer group also faced another setback when the UAE announced its formal departure. Bloomberg's April survey includes figures for the UAE for the final month before its exit takes effect on May 1.Kuwait registered the group's steepest decline in April, with output falling by 470,000 b/d to an average of 800,000 b/d.Iran followed, after initially sustaining exports in the early phase of the conflict while restricting use of the strait by others, but has since come under mounting pressure from a US-led blockade on shipments.However, despite the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC agreed over the weekend to a nominal increase in output quotas for June.The symbolic move is intended to maintain the alliance's pre-war strategy of restoring production, though analysts noted the hikes remain largely "on paper" given the current maritime blockade.
Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Strong Buy Opinion On Shares Of Arista Networks, Inc.
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We keep our 12-month target at $175, based on 48.2x our 2026 EPS estimate. We increase our 2026 EPS estimate by $0.10 to $3.63 and 2027's by $0.17 to $4.42. While ANET was able to raise its full-year guidance, it was lower than we expected due to some notable challenges. It experienced industry-wide supply shortages, particularly in wafers, silicon chips, CPUs, optics, and memory. These shortages increased procurement costs and limited its ability to fully meet strong customer demand. Gross margin was under pressure due to a combination of higher supply chain costs (especially for memory and silicon) and a shift in customer mix toward larger accounts, which tend to have lower margins. It also paid more to secure supply continuity, further impacting margins. Lead times for critical components, particularly high-end chips used in AI platforms, were extremely long, sometimes extending to 52 weeks or more, requiring ANET to make multiyear purchase commitments and increasing the risk of inventory imbalances.